Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Old Dominion beat Georgia Southern 45–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 45 |
|---|---|
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Old Dominion about even · −1 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 10, Georgia Southern wins 0.
- 1 ODU 63 GASO 7
- 2 ODU 55 GASO 10
- 3 ODU 48 GASO 7
- 4 ODU 37 GASO 0
- 5 ODU 48 GASO 14
- 6 ODU 44 GASO 14
- 7 ODU 41 GASO 16
- 8 ODU 31 GASO 9
- 9 ODU 24 GASO 6
- 10 ODU 33 GASO 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Old Dominion wins 99% of them, Georgia Southern 1%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 88.6% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Eichner, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- N. Eichner, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
- T. Bryant, 26 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Old Dominion 5 for 41 yards, Georgia Southern 5 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:59 | Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% GASO +2.7 pts |
| Q1 7:08 | Illegal Block on Georgia Southern, 7 yards | 0% ODU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:55 | Offside on Georgia Southern, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% ODU +3.4 pts |
| Q1 0:22 | Intentional Grounding on Old Dominion, 0 yards | 0% GASO 0.0 pts |
| Q2 11:05 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 8 yards | +1% ODU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 9:44 | Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% GASO +1.9 pts |
| Q2 7:31 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on Old Dominion, 1 yard | 0% GASO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:00 | Delay of Game on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ODU +3.5 pts |
When it happened
Georgia Southern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:34 | Georgia Southern fumbled and Old Dominion recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% ODU | GASO: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:15 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +2% ODU | ODU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:40 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +2% ODU | GASO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:34 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +1% ODU | ODU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:55 | Offside on Georgia Southern, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +2% ODU | ODU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 13:50 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% ODU | GASO: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 11:05 | Pass Interference on Georgia Southern, 8 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ODU | ODU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:59 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% ODU | ODU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Old Dominion 100% · Georgia Southern 0%
- Final margin
- Old Dominion by 35
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for Old Dominion
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Old Dominion by 24.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Old Dominion 99% · Georgia Southern 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Old Dominion · 
Georgia Southern
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner