Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
UL Monroe at Texas State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat UL Monroe 31–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 91% favorite.
Final
 UL Monroe Warhawks | 14 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Texas State about even · −18 UL Monroe
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UL Monroe wins 2, Texas State wins 8.
- 1 ULM 20 TXST 7
- 2 ULM 20 TXST 17
- 3 ULM 17 TXST 19
- 4 ULM 21 TXST 27
- 5 ULM 14 TXST 24
- 6 ULM 21 TXST 34
- 7 ULM 21 TXST 37
- 8 ULM 3 TXST 24
- 9 ULM 3 TXST 29
- 10 ULM 7 TXST 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UL Monroe wins 18% of them, Texas State 82%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UL Monroe by 17+ | 2.2% |
| UL Monroe by 9–16 | 4.8% |
| UL Monroe by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 34.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: UL Monroe 4 for 50 yards, Texas State 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:06 | False Start on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:49 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ULM +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:33 | Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +2% TXST +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:43 | Personal Foul on Texas State, 15 yards | 0% ULM +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:31 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TXST +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Roughing the Passer on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +1% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:30 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% ULM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | Personal Foul on UL Monroe, 15 yards | +1% TXST +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:52 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 3:49 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 13:33 | Pass Interference on UL Monroe, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 12:41 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% ULM | TXST: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 4:31 | False Start on UL Monroe, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% TXST | TXST: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 3:09 | UL Monroe converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% ULM | ULM: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 12:58 | UL Monroe was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +4% TXST | ULM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 3:12 | Texas State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +3% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UL Monroe 1% · Texas State 99%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 17
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 12.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UL Monroe 18% · Texas State 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
UL Monroe · 
Texas State
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner