Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Washington State at James Madison, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
James Madison beat Washington State 24–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 9 of 10. Washington State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to Washington State.
Before kickoff James Madison was an 84% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:06 left): Washington State converted 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to Washington State.
Final
 Washington State Cougars | 20 |
|---|---|
 James Madison Dukes | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 James Madison about even · −11 Washington State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington State wins 1, James Madison wins 9.
- 1 WSU 28 JMU 21
- 2 WSU 27 JMU 30
- 3 WSU 14 JMU 20
- 4 WSU 17 JMU 24
- 5 WSU 10 JMU 21
- 6 WSU 0 JMU 14
- 7 WSU 7 JMU 23
- 8 WSU 2 JMU 21
- 9 WSU 14 JMU 38
- 10 WSU 7 JMU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington State wins 11% of them, James Madison 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington State by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 6.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| James Madison by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| James Madison by 9–16 | 20.1% |
| James Madison by 17+ | 46.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Stevens, 29 yds made · 89% expected
- M. Suarez, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- J. Stevens, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Washington State 6 for 45 yards, James Madison 4 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:00 | Sideline Interference on Washington State, 5 yards | +1% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 6:37 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +1% WSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 5:10 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JMU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:35 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +2% JMU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +2% JMU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:56 | Offside on James Madison, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yards | +7% WSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 0:48 | Holding on Washington State, 10 yards | +3% JMU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:07 | Delay of Game on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JMU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 9:18 | Holding on James Madison, 10 yards | +3% WSU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
James Madison’s chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:18 | Washington State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +5% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:27 | Return touchdown by James MadisonSpecial teams | +10% JMU | JMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 6:43 | James Madison was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +8% WSU | JMU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 5:06 | Washington State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% WSU | WSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 0:52 | Roughing the Passer on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% WSU | WSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 11:30 | Washington State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% WSU | WSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 4:24 | Washington State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +8% WSU | WSU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 2:58 | Washington State was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% JMU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington State 4% · James Madison 96%
- Final margin
- James Madison by 4
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Washington State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- James Madison by 9.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington State 11% · James Madison 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Washington State · 
James Madison
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner