Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Georgia State at Troy, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Georgia State 31–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Troy wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Troy.
Before kickoff Troy was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Georgia State Panthers | 19 |
|---|---|
 Troy Trojans | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Troy lucky · −55 Georgia State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia State wins 6, Troy wins 4.
- 1 GAST 44 TROY 14
- 2 GAST 30 TROY 10
- 3 GAST 37 TROY 22
- 4 GAST 24 TROY 13
- 5 GAST 40 TROY 34
- 6 GAST 20 TROY 17
- 7 GAST 28 TROY 31
- 8 GAST 14 TROY 21
- 9 GAST 17 TROY 28
- 10 GAST 27 TROY 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia State wins 55% of them, Troy 45%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia State by 17+ | 18.4% |
| Georgia State by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Georgia State by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 11.4% |
| Troy by 17+ | 11.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rickman, 34 yds made · 79% expected
- S. Renfroe, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- L. Rickman, 47 yds made · 57% expected
- L. Rickman, 45 yds missed · 61% expected
Penalties: Georgia State 5 for 30 yards, Troy 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:24 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:07 | Offside on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TROY +1.5 pts |
| Q2 0:27 | Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards | +3% GAST +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:21 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +1% GAST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards | +2% TROY +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:38 | Personal Foul on Troy, 15 yards | +2% GAST +2.1 pts |
| Q4 6:19 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:04 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | 0% GAST +1.5 pts |
| Q4 2:58 | Illegal Substitution on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GAST +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:23 | False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Troy’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:32 | Georgia State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% TROY | GAST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 7:23 | Troy was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedS. Renfroe made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% GAST | TROY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 5:26 | Georgia State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% GAST | GAST: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 11:50 | L. Rickman missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 4 of 5 from 45+ before | +5% TROY | GAST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 10:47 | Troy converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:53 | Troy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:32 | Troy converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:25 | Troy converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% TROY | TROY: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia State 51% · Troy 49%
- Final margin
- Troy by 12
- Luck in points
- 12.3 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia State by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia State 55% · Troy 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Georgia State · 
Troy
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Southern Miss at South Alabama USA 42–35 · replay 71% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner