Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Southern Miss at South Alabama, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
South Alabama beat Southern Miss 42–35, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 35 |
|---|---|
 South Alabama Jaguars | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +29 South Alabama lucky · −29 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Southern Miss wins 3, South Alabama wins 7.
- 1 USM 42 USA 21
- 2 USM 27 USA 16
- 3 USM 34 USA 31
- 4 USM 31 USA 34
- 5 USM 19 USA 26
- 6 USM 28 USA 38
- 7 USM 20 USA 34
- 8 USM 7 USA 26
- 9 USM 16 USA 41
- 10 USM 16 USA 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Southern Miss wins 29% of them, South Alabama 71%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Alabama by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 7.1% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 8.1% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 20.1% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 17.0% |
| South Alabama by 17+ | 30.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Southern Miss 7 for 29 yards, South Alabama 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:06 | Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% USA +1.7 pts |
| Q2 14:57 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:32 | False Start on South Alabama, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.1 pts |
| Q3 6:16 | Personal Foul on South Alabama, 15 yards | 0% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:18 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:33 | Roughing the Passer on South Alabama, 15 yards | +1% USM +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:30 | Illegal Substitution on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USA +0.1 pts |
| Q4 7:17 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 15 yards | 0% USM +1.8 pts |
| Q4 2:50 | Holding on Southern Miss, 3 yards | 0% USM +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:49 | Holding on Southern Miss, 5 yards | 0% USA +0.3 pts |
| Q4 2:04 | False Start on Southern Miss, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Pass Interference on South Alabama, 2 yards | 0% USM +1.9 pts |
When it happened
South Alabama’s chance of winning
As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:06 | Offside on Southern Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 12:55 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 9:39 | South Alabama converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +4% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 6:27 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% USM | USM: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:57 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedFalse Start on Southern Miss, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% USA | USM: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 8:57 | South Alabama converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 6:37 | South Alabama was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +6% USM | USA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 0:48 | C. Wilbanks missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +4% USA | USM: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Southern Miss 25% · South Alabama 75%
- Final margin
- South Alabama by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for South Alabama
- Luck-adjusted margin
- South Alabama by 4.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Southern Miss 29% · South Alabama 71% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Southern Miss · 
South Alabama
More from Week 13 2025
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Georgia State at Troy TROY 31–19 · replay 45% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Texas State TXST 31–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington State at James Madison JMU 24–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ODU 45–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at South Carolina SC 51–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Utah State at Fresno State USU 28–17 · replay 30% for the winner