Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Duke at North Carolina, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Duke beat North Carolina 32–25, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, North Carolina wins 9 of 10.
Duke won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff Duke was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:51 left): Duke was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 21 points of win probability to North Carolina.
Final
 Duke Blue Devils | 32 |
|---|---|
 North Carolina Tar Heels | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Duke very lucky · −87 North Carolina
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Duke wins 1, North Carolina wins 9.
- 1 DUKE 14 UNC 7
- 2 DUKE 10 UNC 13
- 3 DUKE 0 UNC 6
- 4 DUKE 7 UNC 14
- 5 DUKE 3 UNC 13
- 6 DUKE 14 UNC 27
- 7 DUKE 14 UNC 30
- 8 DUKE 10 UNC 30
- 9 DUKE 7 UNC 31
- 10 DUKE 7 UNC 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Duke won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against North Carolina it would win 61% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for Duke: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duke offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.09 | better by 0.04 |
| Duke defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.13 | worse by 0.14 |
| North Carolina offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.06 | better by 0.22 |
| North Carolina defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.04 | worse by 0.09 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Duke wins 13% of them, North Carolina 87%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Duke by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 3.5% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.4% |
| North Carolina by 1–8 | 21.1% |
| North Carolina by 9–16 | 24.9% |
| North Carolina by 17+ | 37.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Pelino, 33 yds made · 84% expected
- R. Verhoff, 49 yds made · 58% expected
Penalties: Duke 2 for 25 yards, North Carolina 9 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:58 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +2.0 pts |
| Q2 10:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on Duke, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +2.2 pts |
| Q2 7:54 | Pass Interference on North Carolina, 8 yards | +2% DUKE +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:10 | Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:12 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% UNC +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:44 | Ineligible Downfield on North Carolina, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% DUKE +1.8 pts |
| Q3 13:04 | Illegal Substitution on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DUKE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:26 | Holding on North Carolina, 2 yards | +1% DUKE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 6:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on North Carolina, 15 yards | +2% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:14 | Holding on North Carolina, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +1% DUKE +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on North Carolina, 7 yards | 0% DUKE +1.1 pts |
When it happened
North Carolina’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 13:15 | Duke converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 14:54 | North Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% UNC | UNC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 12:07 | Duke converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 9:35 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +7% UNC | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 8:51 | Duke was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +21% UNC | DUKE: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 4:39 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% UNC | DUKE: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 4:29 | Duke converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +20% DUKE | DUKE: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 2:28 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +11% UNC | DUKE: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Duke 69% · North Carolina 31%
- Final margin
- Duke by 7
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Duke 13% · North Carolina 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Duke · 
North Carolina
More from Week 13 2025
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisville at SMU SMU 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- California at Stanford STAN 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Syracuse at Notre Dame ND 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner