luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 13 2025 · November 21, 2025

Florida State at NC State, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

NC State beat Florida State 21–11, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Florida State wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to NC State.

Before kickoff Florida State was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:17 left): Florida State converted 3rd & 9, worth 19 points of win probability to Florida State.

Final

Florida State Seminoles 11
NC State Wolfpack 21

November 21, 2025 · Carter-Finley Stadium · Closing line: Florida State −7

Luck index +82 NC State very lucky · −82 Florida State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida State wins 8, NC State wins 2.

  1. 1 FSU 31 NCSU 3
  2. 2 FSU 23 NCSU 0
  3. 3 FSU 21 NCSU 3
  4. 4 FSU 19 NCSU 3
  5. 5 FSU 20 NCSU 7
  6. 6 FSU 20 NCSU 10
  7. 7 FSU 7 NCSU 0
  8. 8 FSU 16 NCSU 13
  9. 9 FSU 13 NCSU 16
  10. 10 FSU 10 NCSU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida State wins 82% of them, NC State 18%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: NC State by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida State by 17+31.3%
Florida State by 9–1625.8%
Florida State by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation5.8%
NC State by 1–811.3%
NC State by 9–164.1%
NC State by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.8 points to NC State: the final margin was NC State by 10, without the luck NC State by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Weinberg, 46 yds made · 61% expected
  • J. Weinberg, 35 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Weinberg, 51 yds missed · 51% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Florida State 8 for 37 yards, NC State 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:05 Pass Interference on Florida State, 4 yards 0% NCSU +1.0 pts
Q1 2:34 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NCSU +1.0 pts
Q2 5:02 Illegal Formation on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.5 pts
Q2 4:44 False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q2 3:01 Delay of Game on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% FSU +0.6 pts
Q2 2:17 Holding on NC State, 10 yards +2% FSU +0.6 pts
Q3 14:26 Holding on Florida State, 10 yards +5% NCSU +1.8 pts
Q3 5:52 Pass Interference on Florida State, 2 yards +1% NCSU +0.4 pts
Q3 5:39 Illegal Substitution on Florida State, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.2 pts
Q4 11:49 Pass Interference on NC State, 15 yards +3% FSU +1.2 pts
Q4 2:35 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% FSU +1.0 pts

When it happened

NC State’s chance of winning

As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while NC State was ahead in it, below while Florida State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:11 Florida State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% FSU FSU: Missed field goal
2 Q2 2:56 J. Weinberg missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +8% NCSU FSU: Punt
3 Q4 9:52 Florida State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% FSU FSU: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:17 Florida State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFlorida State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +19% FSU FSU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 4:51 NC State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% FSU NCSU: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:30 NC State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% FSU NCSU: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:28 Florida State fumbled and NC State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NCSU FSU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 1:47 NC State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% NCSU NCSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida State 32% · NC State 68%

Final margin
NC State by 10
Luck in points
6.8 for NC State
Luck-adjusted margin
NC State by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Florida State 82% · NC State 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Florida State · NC State

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