Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Miami at Virginia Tech, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Miami beat Virginia Tech 34–17, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Miami was an 87% favorite.
Final
 Miami Hurricanes | 34 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Tech Hokies | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Miami lucky · −39 Virginia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Miami wins 6, Virginia Tech wins 4.
- 1 MIA 38 VT 10
- 2 MIA 31 VT 14
- 3 MIA 31 VT 17
- 4 MIA 17 VT 7
- 5 MIA 20 VT 14
- 6 MIA 24 VT 21
- 7 MIA 21 VT 24
- 8 MIA 10 VT 16
- 9 MIA 10 VT 20
- 10 MIA 10 VT 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Miami wins 61% of them, Virginia Tech 39%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Miami by 17+ | 20.4% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 21.9% |
| Level after regulation | 6.3% |
| Virginia Tech by 1–8 | 17.5% |
| Virginia Tech by 9–16 | 9.6% |
| Virginia Tech by 17+ | 6.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Love, 30 yds made · 92% expected
- C. Davis, 46 yds made · 63% expected
- C. Davis, 40 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: Miami 9 for 88 yards, Virginia Tech 7 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:32 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q1 10:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on Miami, 15 yards | +1% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:33 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | +1% MIA +1.5 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Personal Foul on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Miami, 15 yards | 0% VT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:34 | False Start on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% VT +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yards | 0% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q3 14:30 | Offside on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | Face Mask on Miami, 15 yards | 0% MIA +4.1 pts |
| Q3 3:03 | Illegal Block on Miami, 8 yards | 0% VT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 9:35 | Offside on Virginia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +1.3 pts |
| Q4 9:26 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | 0% VT +1.5 pts |
| Q4 7:47 | Delay of Game on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% VT +0.4 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | 0% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | Pass Interference on Virginia Tech, 15 yards | +1% MIA +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Virginia Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:30 | Miami converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:33 | Holding on Virginia Tech, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:30 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% VT | MIA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:49 | Miami converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +2% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:50 | Miami converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 8:58 | Virginia Tech was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +2% MIA | VT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 4:19 | Miami was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Miami, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% VT | MIA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 6:37 | Miami converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% MIA | MIA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Miami 86% · Virginia Tech 14%
- Final margin
- Miami by 17
- Luck in points
- 8.7 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Miami by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Miami 61% · Virginia Tech 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Miami · 
Virginia Tech
More from Week 13 2025
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisville at SMU SMU 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- California at Stanford STAN 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Syracuse at Notre Dame ND 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner