Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Louisville at SMU, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Louisville 38–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 9 of 10.
An off day for Louisville: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against SMU it would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff SMU was a 60% favorite.
Final
 Louisville Cardinals | 6 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 SMU about even · −7 Louisville
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisville wins 1, SMU wins 9.
- 1 LOU 17 SMU 10
- 2 LOU 14 SMU 17
- 3 LOU 10 SMU 17
- 4 LOU 16 SMU 27
- 5 LOU 14 SMU 28
- 6 LOU 6 SMU 24
- 7 LOU 3 SMU 24
- 8 LOU 13 SMU 38
- 9 LOU 7 SMU 38
- 10 LOU 0 SMU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Louisville
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against SMU it would win 37% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for Louisville: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville offenseEPA per play gained | −0.00 | +0.10 | worse by 0.10 |
| Louisville defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.36 | −0.00 | worse by 0.36 |
| SMU offenseEPA per play gained | +0.36 | +0.10 | better by 0.25 |
| SMU defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.00 | −0.01 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisville wins 7% of them, SMU 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 32.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisville by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| SMU by 17+ | 57.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Ranvier, 36 yds made · 82% expected
- C. Ranvier, 29 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Keltner, 49 yds made · 56% expected
Penalties: Louisville 6 for 47 yards, SMU 6 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LOU +1.0 pts |
| Q1 12:35 | Pass Interference on Louisville, 15 yards | +1% SMU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 11:47 | Pass Interference on Louisville, 6 yards | +1% SMU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:37 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on SMU, 15 yards | +2% LOU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SMU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 12:46 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:50 | False Start on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 4:23 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 6 yards | +1% SMU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:36 | Personal Foul on SMU, 10 yards | +1% LOU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% SMU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 7:07 | Kick Catch Interference on SMU, 15 yards | +1% LOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:36 | Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SMU +0.8 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | SMU converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:02 | Louisville converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +4% LOU | LOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:19 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% SMU | LOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 10:53 | SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 5:08 | SMU converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +2% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 11:23 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +3% SMU | LOU: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:46 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% SMU | SMU: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:28 | SMU converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% SMU | SMU: End of half |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisville 0% · SMU 100%
- Final margin
- SMU by 32
- Luck in points
- 10.7 for SMU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 21.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisville 7% · SMU 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Louisville · 
SMU
More from Week 13 2025
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- California at Stanford STAN 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Syracuse at Notre Dame ND 70–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner