Week 13 2025 · November 22, 2025
Syracuse at Notre Dame, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
Notre Dame beat Syracuse 70–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Syracuse Orange | 7 |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 70 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Notre Dame about even · 0 Syracuse
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Syracuse wins 0, Notre Dame wins 10.
- 1 SYR 10 ND 21
- 2 SYR 3 ND 21
- 3 SYR 21 ND 45
- 4 SYR 14 ND 42
- 5 SYR 10 ND 42
- 6 SYR 10 ND 45
- 7 SYR 3 ND 41
- 8 SYR 0 ND 41
- 9 SYR 10 ND 55
- 10 SYR 0 ND 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Syracuse wins 0% of them, Notre Dame 100%. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 63.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Syracuse by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Notre Dame by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Notre Dame by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| Notre Dame by 17+ | 95.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
Penalties: Syracuse 5 for 39 yards, Notre Dame 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:15 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% ND +1.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND 0.0 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | Face Mask on Syracuse, 14 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ND +0.4 pts |
| Q2 2:59 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 10 yards | 0% SYR +1.6 pts |
| Q3 13:47 | False Start on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ND +1.0 pts |
| Q3 12:14 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 10 yards | 0% SYR +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:30 | Roughing the Passer on Notre Dame, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SYR +8.8 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 15 yards | 0% SYR +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Notre Dame’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:03 | Return touchdown by Notre DameSpecial teams | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:26 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +0% ND | SYR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:15 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% ND | SYR: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:11 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +0% ND | SYR: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 7:08 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Syracuse, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 5:37 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +0% ND | SYR: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 2:32 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +0% ND | SYR: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 14:56 | Notre Dame converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +0% ND | ND: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Syracuse 0% · Notre Dame 100%
- Final margin
- Notre Dame by 63
- Luck in points
- 6.6 for Notre Dame
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Notre Dame by 56.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Syracuse 0% · Notre Dame 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Syracuse · 
Notre Dame
More from Week 13 2025
- Duke at North Carolina DUKE 32–25 · replay 13% for the winner
- Florida State at NC State NCSU 21–11 · replay 18% for the winner
- UConn at Florida Atlantic CONN 48–45 · replay 25% for the winner
- Miami at Virginia Tech MIA 34–17 · replay 61% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech PITT 42–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Louisville at SMU SMU 38–6 · replay 93% for the winner
- California at Stanford STAN 31–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Furman at Clemson CLEM 45–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Wake Forest WAKE 52–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Marshall at App State APP 26–24 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisiana at Arkansas State UL 34–30 · replay 16% for the winner
- Missouri State at Kennesaw State KENN 41–34 · replay 23% for the winner