Independent · 2026 season, in progress
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: luck and expected wins
Notre Dame is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 55th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Notre Dame wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Wisconsin | W 41–13 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 2 | vs Rice | W 52–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs Michigan State | W 27–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 4 | @ Purdue | W 49–10 | 100% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Notre Dame win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at North Carolina |  Notre Dame by 24.4 | 94% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Stanford | Notre Dame by 38.5 | 99% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at BYU | Notre Dame by 11.5 | 76% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Navy | Notre Dame by 31.8 | 97% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Miami | Notre Dame by 8.5 | 70% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Boston College | Notre Dame by 40.3 | 99% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs SMU | Notre Dame by 22.5 | 91% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Syracuse | Notre Dame by 27.1 | 95% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Notre Dame’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.04 | −3.2 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Notre Dame takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | vs USC | W 34–24 | 73% | +27 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Wisconsin | W 41–13 | 79% | +21 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Pittsburgh | W 37–15 | 85% | +15 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Boise State | W 28–7 | 92% | +8 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Stanford | W 49–20 | 95% | +5 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Notre Dame would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 3 | vs Texas A&M | L 40–41 | 63% | −63 |
| 2025 Week 1 | @ Miami | L 24–27 | 30% | −30 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 10–2 | 10.3 | −0.3 | 0–2 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Miami | L 24–27 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 3 | vs Texas A&M | L 40–41 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 4 | vs Purdue | W 56–30 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | @ Arkansas | W 56–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 6 | vs Boise State | W 28–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 7 | vs NC State | W 36–7 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 8 | vs USC | W 34–24 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 10 | @ Boston College | W 25–10 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 11 | vs Navy | W 49–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ Pittsburgh | W 37–15 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | vs Syracuse | W 70–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 14 | @ Stanford | W 49–20 | 95% | +5 |
More
How many wins does Notre Dame have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.7 wins.
Was Notre Dame lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.3 wins of luck, the 55th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Notre Dame’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.7 wins, +0.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 10–2 from play worth 10.3 (−0.3).