luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh 37–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Notre Dame wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Notre Dame was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:59 left): Return touchdown by Notre Dame, worth 9 points of win probability to Notre Dame.

Final

Notre Dame Fighting Irish 37
Pittsburgh Panthers 15

November 15, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Notre Dame −12.5

Luck index +15 Notre Dame about even · −15 Pittsburgh

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Notre Dame wins 8, Pittsburgh wins 2.

  1. 1 ND 38 PITT 7
  2. 2 ND 28 PITT 3
  3. 3 ND 27 PITT 6
  4. 4 ND 21 PITT 3
  5. 5 ND 24 PITT 10
  6. 6 ND 14 PITT 2
  7. 7 ND 16 PITT 7
  8. 8 ND 10 PITT 7
  9. 9 ND 14 PITT 17
  10. 10 ND 17 PITT 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Notre Dame wins 85% of them, Pittsburgh 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Notre Dame by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Notre Dame by 17+39.2%
Notre Dame by 9–1622.6%
Notre Dame by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
Pittsburgh by 1–89.7%
Pittsburgh by 9–163.9%
Pittsburgh by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to Notre Dame: the final margin was Notre Dame by 22, without the luck Notre Dame by 18.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • E. Schmidt, 46 yds missed · 59% expected
  • S. Carpenter, 24 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Carpenter, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Notre Dame 8 for 84 yards, Pittsburgh 5 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:58 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards +1% PITT +1.8 pts
Q1 1:40 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards +1% PITT +1.6 pts
Q2 13:17 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yards +1% PITT +1.9 pts
Q2 12:18 False Start on Notre Dame, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PITT +1.1 pts
Q2 11:26 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 12 yards +1% ND +1.0 pts
Q2 0:53 Illegal Shift on Pittsburgh, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% ND +0.7 pts
Q3 11:36 Holding on Pittsburgh, 9 yards 0% ND +1.1 pts
Q3 9:37 Face Mask on Notre Dame, 15 yards 0% PITT +2.5 pts
Q3 8:58 Holding on Pittsburgh, 10 yards 0% ND +1.6 pts
Q3 5:49 Pass Interference on Notre Dame, 4 yards +1% PITT +3.9 pts
Q4 0:35 Roughing the Passer on Notre Dame, 15 yards 0% PITT +1.5 pts
Q4 0:25 Roughing the Passer on Notre Dame, 15 yards 0% PITT +0.9 pts
Q4 0:25 False Start on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ND +0.3 pts

When it happened

Pittsburgh’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Pittsburgh was ahead in it, below while Notre Dame was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:27 Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedPittsburgh was stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +3% ND PITT: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 10:01 Notre Dame was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +1% PITT ND: Missed field goal
3 Q1 9:56 E. Schmidt missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +3% PITT ND: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:39 Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +1% ND PITT: Punt
5 Q1 7:59 Return touchdown by Notre DameSpecial teams +9% ND ND: Punt
6 Q2 13:17 Holding on Notre Dame, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% PITT PITT: Punt
7 Q2 5:29 Notre Dame was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +2% PITT ND: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:55 Notre Dame converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% ND ND: Turnover on downs

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Notre Dame 100% · Pittsburgh 0%

Final margin
Notre Dame by 22
Luck in points
3.7 for Notre Dame
Luck-adjusted margin
Notre Dame by 18.3
Replay with same day's form
Notre Dame 85% · Pittsburgh 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Notre Dame · Pittsburgh

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