luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

South Florida at Navy, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Navy beat South Florida 41–38, but the replays lean toward South Florida: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Navy.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): South Florida’s two-point try was good, worth 12 points of win probability to South Florida.

Final

South Florida Bulls 38
Navy Midshipmen 41

November 15, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −9.5

Luck index +62 Navy very lucky · −62 South Florida

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. South Florida wins 6, Navy wins 4.

  1. 1 USF 51 NAVY 16
  2. 2 USF 56 NAVY 31
  3. 3 USF 44 NAVY 24
  4. 4 USF 52 NAVY 38
  5. 5 USF 34 NAVY 24
  6. 6 USF 49 NAVY 45
  7. 7 USF 42 NAVY 45
  8. 8 USF 52 NAVY 59
  9. 9 USF 17 NAVY 30
  10. 10 USF 31 NAVY 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

South Florida wins 62% of them, Navy 38%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
South Florida by 17+29.9%
South Florida by 9–1615.0%
South Florida by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation5.1%
Navy by 1–814.8%
Navy by 9–169.1%
Navy by 17+9.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to Navy: the final margin was Navy by 3, without the luck Navy by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Gramatica, 22 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Kirkwood, 44 yds made · 63% expected
  • N. Kirkwood, 31 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: South Florida 5 for 31 yards, Navy 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:03 Offside on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USF +1.0 pts
Q1 9:27 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NAVY +0.4 pts
Q1 9:02 Roughing the Passer on Navy, 15 yards +3% USF +1.6 pts
Q1 1:53 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NAVY +0.9 pts
Q2 10:52 False Start on South Florida, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% NAVY +0.1 pts
Q2 7:59 False Start on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.4 pts
Q2 5:37 Personal Foul on Navy, 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% USF +1.8 pts
Q3 7:44 Running Into the Kicker on South Florida, 5 yards +3% NAVY +0.8 pts
Q3 0:46 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards +9% NAVY +3.1 pts
Q4 14:13 Pass Interference on Navy, 15 yards +3% USF +1.3 pts
Q4 13:37 Encroachment on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% USF +1.3 pts
Q4 0:07 Delay of Game on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.2 pts

When it happened

Navy’s chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Navy was ahead in it, below while South Florida was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:30 Navy fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% USF NAVY: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:20 South Florida was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +6% NAVY USF: End of half
3 Q3 10:54 Navy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% NAVY NAVY: Punt
4 Q3 7:27 Navy converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% NAVY NAVY: Punt
5 Q3 0:46 Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% NAVY NAVY: Field goal
6 Q4 7:41 South Florida converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% USF USF: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 South Florida converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedSouth Florida’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% USF USF: Turnover
8 Q4 0:06 Navy was stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedSouth Florida fumbled and Navy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% USF –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

South Florida 48% · Navy 52%

Final margin
Navy by 3
Luck in points
2.5 for Navy
Luck-adjusted margin
Navy by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
South Florida 62% · Navy 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · South Florida · Navy

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Every week 12 game, 2025