Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Air Force at UConn, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
UConn beat Air Force 26–16, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, UConn wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to UConn.
Before kickoff UConn was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:52 left): Illegal Formation on UConn, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to Air Force.
Final
 Air Force Falcons | 16 |
|---|---|
 UConn Huskies | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 UConn lucky · −45 Air Force
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Air Force wins 4, UConn wins 6.
- 1 AF 37 CONN 13
- 2 AF 20 CONN 7
- 3 AF 17 CONN 10
- 4 AF 17 CONN 14
- 5 AF 20 CONN 23
- 6 AF 16 CONN 21
- 7 AF 27 CONN 35
- 8 AF 17 CONN 28
- 9 AF 13 CONN 27
- 10 AF 10 CONN 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Air Force wins 45% of them, UConn 55%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UConn by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Air Force by 17+ | 8.6% |
| Air Force by 9–16 | 12.9% |
| Air Force by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| UConn by 17+ | 12.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Tubbs, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- C. Freeman, 47 yds made · 61% expected
- R. Tubbs, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- C. Freeman, 27 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Air Force 2 for 11 yards, UConn 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:44 | False Start on Air Force, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CONN +1.1 pts |
| Q1 1:46 | Holding on Air Force, 6 yards | +1% CONN +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:19 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +1% AF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:52 | Illegal Formation on UConn, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +15% AF +5.4 pts |
| Q3 14:33 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | +3% AF +1.1 pts |
When it happened
UConn’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:58 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% AF | CONN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:55 | Air Force converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% AF | AF: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 5:28 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% CONN | AF: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q2 1:43 | R. Tubbs missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 49% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +5% CONN | AF: End of half |
| 5 | Q2 0:52 | Illegal Formation on UConn, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +15% AF | AF: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 0:28 | C. Freeman made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before | +3% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 12:44 | UConn converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% CONN | CONN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 5:45 | Air Force was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +3% CONN | AF: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Air Force 29% · UConn 71%
- Final margin
- UConn by 10
- Luck in points
- 5.2 for UConn
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UConn by 4.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Air Force 45% · UConn 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Air Force · 
UConn
More from Week 12 2025
- Colorado State at New Mexico UNM 20–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Utah State at UNLV UNLV 29–26 · replay 68% for the winner
- Boise State at San Diego State SDSU 17–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ND 37–15 · replay 85% for the winner
- Wyoming at Fresno State FRES 24–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- San José State at Nevada NEV 55–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner