luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025

San José State at Nevada, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Nevada beat San José State 55–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Nevada wins 10 of 10.

An off day for San José State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff San José State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:24 left): Return touchdown by Nevada, worth 15 points of win probability to Nevada.

Final

San José State Spartans 10
Nevada Wolf Pack 55

November 15, 2025 · Mackay Stadium · Closing line: San José State −10

Luck index +1 Nevada about even · −1 San José State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. San José State wins 0, Nevada wins 10.

  1. 1 SJSU 21 NEV 31
  2. 2 SJSU 7 NEV 23
  3. 3 SJSU 7 NEV 28
  4. 4 SJSU 10 NEV 35
  5. 5 SJSU 13 NEV 41
  6. 6 SJSU 0 NEV 31
  7. 7 SJSU 7 NEV 42
  8. 8 SJSU 3 NEV 41
  9. 9 SJSU 10 NEV 52
  10. 10 SJSU 0 NEV 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for San José State

Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Nevada it would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

49 points apart for San José State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
San José State offenseEPA per play gained −0.17 +0.19 worse by 0.35
San José State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.34 +0.12 worse by 0.22
Nevada offenseEPA per play gained +0.34 +0.02 better by 0.32
Nevada defenseEPA per play allowed −0.17 +0.09 better by 0.26

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

San José State wins 1% of them, Nevada 99%. The line is what actually happened: Nevada by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
San José State by 17+0.0%
San José State by 9–160.1%
San José State by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.2%
Nevada by 1–82.5%
Nevada by 9–167.0%
Nevada by 17+89.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to Nevada: the final margin was Nevada by 45, without the luck Nevada by 40.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. McFadden, 50 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. McFadden, 38 yds missed · 78% expected
  • M. Brown, 46 yds made · 60% expected
  • J. McFadden, 26 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: San José State 6 for 64 yards, Nevada 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:54 False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV 0.0 pts
Q2 7:35 Holding on San José State, 10 yards +2% NEV +1.8 pts
Q2 1:11 Holding on San José State, 10 yards +1% NEV +0.8 pts
Q3 12:52 Face Mask on San José State, 15 yards 0% NEV +1.6 pts
Q3 9:47 Horse Collar Tackle on Nevada, 15 yards +1% SJSU +1.6 pts
Q3 5:18 Holding on San José State, 10 yards 0% NEV +1.3 pts
Q3 0:24 False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NEV +0.7 pts
Q3 0:23 Face Mask on San José State, 14 yards 0% NEV +1.5 pts

When it happened

Nevada’s chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Nevada was ahead in it, below while San José State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:31 San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% SJSU SJSU: Turnover
2 Q1 9:24 San José State fumbled and Nevada recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by NevadaSpecial teams +15% NEV SJSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:32 San José State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% NEV SJSU: Punt
4 Q1 3:25 Nevada converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% NEV NEV: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:20 Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% SJSU NEV: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:51 Nevada converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +3% NEV NEV: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:21 Nevada converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% NEV NEV: Touchdown
8 Q2 11:10 San José State fumbled and Nevada recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% NEV SJSU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

San José State 0% · Nevada 100%

Final margin
Nevada by 45
Luck in points
4.2 for Nevada
Luck-adjusted margin
Nevada by 40.8
Replay with same day's form
San José State 1% · Nevada 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · San José State · Nevada

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