Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Wyoming at Fresno State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Wyoming 24–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Wyoming: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 15:00 left): Unnecessary Roughness on Wyoming, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 3 |
|---|---|
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Fresno State about even · −4 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 0, Fresno State wins 10.
- 1 WYO 13 FRES 16
- 2 WYO 0 FRES 7
- 3 WYO 4 FRES 16
- 4 WYO 3 FRES 17
- 5 WYO 6 FRES 23
- 6 WYO 0 FRES 19
- 7 WYO 3 FRES 24
- 8 WYO 2 FRES 27
- 9 WYO 0 FRES 30
- 10 WYO 0 FRES 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Wyoming
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Wyoming: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | −0.24 | −0.00 | worse by 0.24 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.06 | better by 0.26 |
| Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.06 | worse by 0.26 |
| Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.24 | +0.07 | better by 0.31 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 4% of them, Fresno State 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 21.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 0.6% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 2.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| Fresno State by 17+ | 67.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Sandvik, 41 yds made · 70% expected
- D. Lynch, 40 yds made · 72% expected
- D. Lynch, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 11 for 139 yards, Fresno State 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wyoming, 15 yards | +15% FRES +2.2 pts |
| Q1 14:55 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% FRES +2.3 pts |
| Q1 13:50 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% FRES +4.2 pts |
| Q1 6:33 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:24 | Holding on Wyoming, 25 yards | +3% FRES +1.5 pts |
| Q1 4:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wyoming, 15 yards | +3% WYO +1.3 pts |
| Q1 4:16 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +2% FRES +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:39 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +5% FRES +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +3% FRES +1.3 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FRES +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:56 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 14 yards | +2% FRES +1.0 pts |
| Q3 0:06 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WYO +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:15 | Face Mask on Wyoming, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% FRES +3.3 pts |
When it happened
Fresno State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% FRES | FRES: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 13:50 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% FRES | FRES: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 13:15 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFresno State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +7% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:50 | Fresno State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +5% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 9:07 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +7% FRES | FRES: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q3 5:08 | Fresno State converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% FRES | FRES: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 2:27 | D. Lynch missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +6% WYO | FRES: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 13:15 | Face Mask on Wyoming, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 1% · Fresno State 99%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 21
- Luck in points
- 6.8 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 14.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 4% · Fresno State 96% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Wyoming · 
Fresno State
More from Week 12 2025
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