Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Boise State at San Diego State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Boise State 17–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 54% favorite.
Final
 Boise State Broncos | 7 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 San Diego State about even · −17 Boise State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Boise State wins 2, San Diego State wins 8.
- 1 BOIS 21 SDSU 10
- 2 BOIS 3 SDSU 0
- 3 BOIS 0 SDSU 3
- 4 BOIS 9 SDSU 14
- 5 BOIS 5 SDSU 13
- 6 BOIS 6 SDSU 17
- 7 BOIS 10 SDSU 24
- 8 BOIS 0 SDSU 17
- 9 BOIS 10 SDSU 30
- 10 BOIS 0 SDSU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Boise State wins 17% of them, San Diego State 83%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Boise State by 17+ | 1.2% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 10.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 24.1% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 32.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Plascencia, 47 yds made · 64% expected
- C. Boomer, 41 yds missed · 70% expected
Penalties: Boise State 4 for 45 yards, San Diego State 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:25 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:00 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SDSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 13:48 | Illegal Block on San Diego State, 10 yards | +1% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 3:45 | Face Mask on Boise State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +7% SDSU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 7:43 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SDSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:55 | Personal Foul on Boise State, 15 yards | +1% SDSU +0.7 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:29 | Boise State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +6% BOIS | BOIS: End of half |
| 2 | Q2 2:32 | San Diego State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +4% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 1:10 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +7% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 12:08 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +4% BOIS | SDSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 9:20 | Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% SDSU | BOIS: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 3:45 | Face Mask on Boise State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 14:47 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 7:43 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Boise State 8% · San Diego State 92%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.7 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Boise State 17% · San Diego State 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Boise State · 
San Diego State
More from Week 12 2025
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Colorado State at New Mexico UNM 20–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Utah State at UNLV UNLV 29–26 · replay 68% for the winner
- Wyoming at Fresno State FRES 24–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- San José State at Nevada NEV 55–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner