Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Colorado State at New Mexico, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat Colorado State 20–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, New Mexico wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff New Mexico was an 84% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:14 left): New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 13 points of win probability to New Mexico.
Final
 Colorado State Rams | 17 |
|---|---|
 New Mexico Lobos | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 New Mexico lucky · −41 Colorado State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colorado State wins 4, New Mexico wins 6.
- 1 CSU 30 UNM 7
- 2 CSU 24 UNM 10
- 3 CSU 23 UNM 14
- 4 CSU 24 UNM 21
- 5 CSU 20 UNM 23
- 6 CSU 10 UNM 16
- 7 CSU 3 UNM 12
- 8 CSU 14 UNM 27
- 9 CSU 10 UNM 28
- 10 CSU 21 UNM 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colorado State wins 41% of them, New Mexico 59%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colorado State by 17+ | 8.9% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 16.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 17.3% |
| New Mexico by 17+ | 19.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Drzewiecki, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- I. Hankins, 30 yds made · 84% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 35 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Colorado State 4 for 35 yards, New Mexico 6 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:34 | Pass Interference on New Mexico, 15 yards | +4% CSU +2.6 pts |
| Q1 11:26 | Holding on Colorado State, 10 yards | +1% UNM +1.1 pts |
| Q1 4:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on New Mexico, 13 yards | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:48 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +2% CSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:11 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:24 | Personal Foul on New Mexico, 15 yards | +2% CSU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 11:21 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +1% CSU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 6:52 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | Illegal Formation on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UNM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:02 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% UNM +0.3 pts |
When it happened
New Mexico’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:58 | New Mexico fumbled and Colorado State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% CSU | UNM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:47 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +5% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:02 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 4:38 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 13% expected | +9% CSU | CSU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 0:05 | New Mexico fumbled and Colorado State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% CSU | UNM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 11:14 | New Mexico was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +13% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:33 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +8% UNM | UNM: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:13 | New Mexico was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +13% CSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colorado State 22% · New Mexico 78%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 3
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for Colorado State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- New Mexico by 5.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Colorado State 41% · New Mexico 59% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Colorado State · 
New Mexico
More from Week 12 2025
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Utah State at UNLV UNLV 29–26 · replay 68% for the winner
- Boise State at San Diego State SDSU 17–7 · replay 83% for the winner
- Wyoming at Fresno State FRES 24–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- San José State at Nevada NEV 55–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner