Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
Colorado State Rams: luck and expected wins
Colorado State is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 56th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often Colorado State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Wyoming | W 35–13 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 2 | vs Southern Utah | W 58–24 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 3 | vs BYU | L 23–41 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ UTSA | L 45–59 | 4% | −4 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Colorado State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Oregon State |  Oregon State by 2.8 | 43% |
| Week 7 · Oct 15 | at Texas State |  Texas State by 9.7 | 28% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs San Diego State |  Colorado State by 1.0 | 52% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Utah State |  Utah State by 3.7 | 41% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Boise State |  Boise State by 13.0 | 22% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Washington State |  Washington State by 6.4 | 35% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Fresno State |  Fresno State by 8.7 | 30% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Colorado State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.10 | +6.3 |
| Pre-snap flags | +0.08 | +1.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Colorado State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Wyoming | W 35–13 | 75% | +25 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Fresno State | W 49–21 | 81% | +19 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Northern Colorado | W 21–17 | 96% | +5 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Southern Utah | W 58–24 | 96% | +4 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Colorado State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 4 | vs UTSA | L 16–17 | 60% | −60 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ New Mexico | L 17–20 | 41% | −41 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Washington State | L 3–20 | 30% | −30 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Air Force | L 21–42 | 29% | −29 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Hawai'i | L 19–31 | 6% | −6 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | 3.6 | −1.6 | 1–2 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Washington | L 21–38 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 2 | vs Northern Colorado | W 21–17 | 96% | +5 |
| Week 4 | vs UTSA | L 16–17 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 5 | vs Washington State | L 3–20 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 6 | @ San Diego State | L 24–45 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 7 | vs Fresno State | W 49–21 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 8 | vs Hawai'i | L 19–31 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 9 | @ Wyoming | L 0–28 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 11 | vs UNLV | L 10–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ New Mexico | L 17–20 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 13 | @ Boise State | L 21–49 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 14 | vs Air Force | L 21–42 | 29% | −29 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State, Fresno State, Oregon State,
San Diego State, Texas State, Utah State, Washington State
How many wins does Colorado State have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.8 wins.
Was Colorado State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.2 wins of luck, the 56th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Colorado State’s luckiest season?
2026: 2–2 from play worth 1.8 wins, +0.2 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 2–10 from play worth 3.6 (−1.6).