Week 7 2025 · October 10, 2025
Fresno State at Colorado State, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Colorado State beat Fresno State 49–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Colorado State wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Fresno State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Colorado State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 64% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:58 left): Return touchdown by Colorado State, worth 11 points of win probability to Colorado State.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 21 |
|---|---|
 Colorado State Rams | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Colorado State about even · −19 Fresno State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 2, Colorado State wins 8.
- 1 FRES 38 CSU 24
- 2 FRES 28 CSU 24
- 3 FRES 35 CSU 38
- 4 FRES 24 CSU 31
- 5 FRES 30 CSU 41
- 6 FRES 27 CSU 42
- 7 FRES 24 CSU 44
- 8 FRES 17 CSU 41
- 9 FRES 20 CSU 48
- 10 FRES 17 CSU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Fresno State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Colorado State it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for Fresno State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.09 | +0.08 | better by 0.01 |
| Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.07 | worse by 0.12 |
| Colorado State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.06 | better by 0.13 |
| Colorado State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.09 | +0.09 | worse by 0.00 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 19% of them, Colorado State 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colorado State by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 3.3% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 9.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Colorado State by 1–8 | 19.2% |
| Colorado State by 9–16 | 18.7% |
| Colorado State by 17+ | 42.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Fresno State 11 for 102 yards, Colorado State 6 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +4% CSU +2.3 pts |
| Q1 2:31 | Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards | +2% CSU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:20 | Face Mask on Colorado State, 15 yards | +2% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:21 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +3% CSU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 6:34 | Offside on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CSU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 4:00 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:57 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CSU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 8:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado State, 15 yards | +3% FRES +3.1 pts |
| Q3 6:45 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +1% CSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:51 | Face Mask on Fresno State, 15 yards | +3% CSU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 3:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado State, 15 yards | +4% FRES +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:36 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:11 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Colorado State, 15 yards | +3% FRES +1.5 pts |
| Q4 7:19 | Pass Interference on Colorado State, 15 yards | 0% FRES +4.1 pts |
| Q4 4:53 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CSU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 4:30 | False Start on Colorado State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +1% CSU +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Colorado State’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:51 | Colorado State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +4% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:06 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% CSU | FRES: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 2:36 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +5% CSU | FRES: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:34 | Offside on Fresno State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% CSU | CSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 5:58 | Fresno State fumbled and Colorado State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Colorado StateSpecial teams | +11% CSU | FRES: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 3:49 | Unnecessary Roughness on Colorado State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% FRES | FRES: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 1:18 | Fresno State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% CSU | FRES: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 0% · Colorado State 100%
- Final margin
- Colorado State by 28
- Luck in points
- 6.2 for Colorado State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Colorado State by 21.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 19% · Colorado State 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
Fresno State · 
Colorado State
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