Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
San Diego State at Nevada, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Nevada 44–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:11 left): Return touchdown by San Diego State, worth 8 points of win probability to San Diego State.
Final
 San Diego State Aztecs | 44 |
|---|---|
 Nevada Wolf Pack | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 San Diego State about even · −2 Nevada
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San Diego State wins 10, Nevada wins 0.
- 1 SDSU 55 NEV 7
- 2 SDSU 51 NEV 13
- 3 SDSU 33 NEV 0
- 4 SDSU 34 NEV 6
- 5 SDSU 33 NEV 7
- 6 SDSU 33 NEV 10
- 7 SDSU 34 NEV 14
- 8 SDSU 31 NEV 14
- 9 SDSU 14 NEV 3
- 10 SDSU 19 NEV 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
San Diego State wins 98% of them, Nevada 2%. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San Diego State by 17+ | 84.2% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 9.7% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 4.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Nevada by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Nevada by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Nevada by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Plascencia, 21 yds made · 97% expected
- G. Plascencia, 45 yds made · 67% expected
- G. Plascencia, 49 yds made · 60% expected
- J. McFadden, 34 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: San Diego State 4 for 43 yards, Nevada 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:23 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:36 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:17 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 13 yards | 0% NEV +1.1 pts |
| Q4 7:06 | Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEV +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:12 | Targeting on San Diego State, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:26 | Penalty on San Diego State, 10 yards | 0% NEV +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Nevada’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:23 | False Start on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 14:18 | Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +2% SDSU | NEV: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 14:01 | Return touchdown by San Diego StateSpecial teams | +7% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 12:54 | Nevada was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +2% SDSU | NEV: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 12:36 | Offside on Nevada, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% SDSU | SDSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 9:30 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% NEV | SDSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 7:11 | Return touchdown by San Diego StateSpecial teams | +8% SDSU | SDSU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 5:52 | Nevada converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +2% NEV | NEV: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San Diego State 100% · Nevada 0%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 34
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 30.4
- Replay with same day's form
- San Diego State 98% · Nevada 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
San Diego State · 
Nevada
More from Week 7 2025
- Air Force at UNLV UNLV 51–48 · replay 62% for the winner
- Utah State at Hawai'i HAW 44–26 · replay 75% for the winner
- Fresno State at Colorado State CSU 49–21 · replay 81% for the winner
- San José State at Wyoming WYO 35–28 · replay 87% for the winner
- New Mexico at Boise State BOIS 41–25 · replay 89% for the winner
- Navy at Temple NAVY 32–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Northwestern at Penn State NU 22–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Toledo at Bowling Green BGSU 28–23 · replay 21% for the winner
- Purdue at Minnesota MINN 27–20 · replay 25% for the winner
- Alabama at Missouri ALA 27–24 · replay 30% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina CCU 23–8 · replay 31% for the winner
- TCU at Kansas State KSU 41–28 · replay 31% for the winner