Week 7 2025 · October 11, 2025
San José State at Wyoming, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?
Wyoming beat San José State 35–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Wyoming wins 9 of 10.
An off day for San José State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff San José State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:40 left): Wyoming converted 3rd & 10, worth 17 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 San José State Spartans | 28 |
|---|---|
 Wyoming Cowboys | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Wyoming about even · −13 San José State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San José State wins 1, Wyoming wins 9.
- 1 SJSU 24 WYO 17
- 2 SJSU 31 WYO 34
- 3 SJSU 20 WYO 27
- 4 SJSU 10 WYO 20
- 5 SJSU 20 WYO 34
- 6 SJSU 21 WYO 38
- 7 SJSU 3 WYO 23
- 8 SJSU 24 WYO 48
- 9 SJSU 7 WYO 37
- 10 SJSU 10 WYO 47
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for San José State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wyoming it would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for San José State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| San José State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.05 | +0.18 | worse by 0.12 |
| San José State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.11 | better by 0.03 |
| Wyoming offenseEPA per play gained | +0.08 | −0.01 | better by 0.09 |
| Wyoming defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.06 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
San José State wins 13% of them, Wyoming 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wyoming by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San José State by 17+ | 1.8% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 7.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 18.8% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Wyoming by 17+ | 49.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Brown, 53 yds missed · 49% expected
- M. Brown, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: San José State 9 for 80 yards, Wyoming 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:21 | Pass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yards | +5% SJSU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards | +4% WYO +2.6 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Delay of Game on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:12 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.3 pts |
| Q3 10:54 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +2% SJSU +2.3 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Ineligible Downfield on San José State, 5 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:26 | Holding on San José State, 10 yards | +1% WYO +1.4 pts |
| Q3 2:50 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +2% SJSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 2:50 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SJSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yards | +4% SJSU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards | +3% WYO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Roughing the Passer on San José State, 15 yards | 0% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:40 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WYO +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Wyoming’s chance of winning
As low as 2% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | San José State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:52 | Return touchdown by WyomingSpecial teams | +10% WYO | WYO: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 6:21 | San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedPass Interference on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 8:26 | San José State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedSan José State was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedHolding on Wyoming, 10 yardsJudgment callsIneligible Downfield on San José State, 5 yardsJudgment callsHolding on San José State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% SJSU | SJSU: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 9:59 | Return touchdown by WyomingSpecial teams | +11% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:54 | San José State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedSan José State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedSan José State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPersonal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +11% SJSU | SJSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 4:12 | Wyoming converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +8% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:40 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on San José State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +17% WYO | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San José State 40% · Wyoming 60%
- Final margin
- Wyoming by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wyoming by 1.5
- Replay with same day's form
- San José State 13% · Wyoming 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · 
San José State · 
Wyoming
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