Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

Wyoming Cowboys: luck and expected wins

Wyoming is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 32nd-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Wyoming wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Colorado State	L 13–35	25%	−25
Week 2	vs Northern Colorado	W 21–13	42%	+58
Week 3	@ Central Michigan	L 10–24	4%	−4
Week 4	vs Hawai'i	W 27–10	83%	+17

Wk 1 −25 @ CSU

Wk 2 +58 vs UNCO

Wk 3 −4 @ CMU

Wk 4 +17 vs HAW

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Wyoming win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at North Dakota State	North Dakota State by 23.2	7%
Week 6 · Oct 9	at San José State	San José State by 5.5	37%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Northern Illinois	Wyoming by 5.0	62%
Week 8 · Oct 23	vs Air Force	Air Force by 6.1	36%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at UNLV	UNLV by 16.2	17%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at UTEP	Wyoming by 2.4	56%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs New Mexico	New Mexico by 16.6	16%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs UConn	UConn by 9.7	28%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Wyoming’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.15	+6.8
Fumble bounces	+0.07	+2.3
Kicks	+0.03	+5.0
Pre-snap flags	+0.02	+3.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Wyoming takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	vs Northern Colorado	W 21–13	42%	+58
2026 Week 4	vs Hawai'i	W 27–10	83%	+17
2025 Week 7	vs San José State	W 35–28	87%	+13
2025 Week 1	@ Akron	W 10–0	91%	+9
2025 Week 9	vs Colorado State	W 28–0	94%	+6

Unluckiest losses

Losses Wyoming would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 8	@ Air Force	L 21–24	87%	−87
2025 Week 6	vs UNLV	L 17–31	75%	−75
2026 Week 1	@ Colorado State	L 13–35	25%	−25
2025 Week 13	vs Nevada	L 7–13	15%	−15
2025 Week 14	@ Hawai'i	L 7–27	11%	−11

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	5.7	−1.7	1–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Akron	W 10–0	91%	+9
Week 2	vs Northern Iowa	W 31–7	99%	+1
Week 3	vs Utah	L 6–31	2%	−2
Week 4	@ Colorado	L 20–37	9%	−9
Week 6	vs UNLV	L 17–31	75%	−75
Week 7	vs San José State	W 35–28	87%	+13
Week 8	@ Air Force	L 21–24	87%	−87
Week 9	vs Colorado State	W 28–0	94%	+6
Week 10	@ San Diego State	L 7–24	0%	0
Week 12	@ Fresno State	L 3–24	4%	−4
Week 13	vs Nevada	L 7–13	15%	−15
Week 14	@ Hawai'i	L 7–27	11%	−11