Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Wyoming at San Diego State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
San Diego State beat Wyoming 24–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San Diego State wins 10 of 10. Wyoming had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Before kickoff San Diego State was a 74% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:58 left): Pass Interference on San Diego State, 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to Wyoming.
Final
 Wyoming Cowboys | 7 |
|---|---|
 San Diego State Aztecs | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 San Diego State about even · 0 Wyoming
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wyoming wins 0, San Diego State wins 10.
- 1 WYO 10 SDSU 21
- 2 WYO 9 SDSU 26
- 3 WYO 13 SDSU 34
- 4 WYO 0 SDSU 24
- 5 WYO 10 SDSU 37
- 6 WYO 3 SDSU 34
- 7 WYO 3 SDSU 37
- 8 WYO 0 SDSU 38
- 9 WYO 6 SDSU 49
- 10 WYO 3 SDSU 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wyoming wins 0% of them, San Diego State 100%. The line is what actually happened: San Diego State by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wyoming by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Wyoming by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Wyoming by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 3.9% |
| San Diego State by 17+ | 94.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Plascencia, 34 yds made · 87% expected
- E. Sandvik, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
- G. Plascencia, 23 yds missed · 98% expected
- E. Sandvik, 50 yds missed · 54% expected
Penalties: Wyoming 6 for 41 yards, San Diego State 8 for 78 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:32 | False Start on Wyoming, 1 yard · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 6:19 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards | +2% WYO +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:56 | Personal Foul on Wyoming, 15 yards | +3% SDSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:01 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +2% WYO +1.1 pts |
| Q3 14:54 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:08 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:56 | Offside on Wyoming, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:09 | Holding on San Diego State, 9 yards | +2% WYO +1.3 pts |
| Q3 2:58 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +9% WYO +5.6 pts |
| Q4 13:33 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yards | +3% WYO +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:29 | False Start on Wyoming, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 13:26 | Holding on Wyoming, 10 yards | +2% SDSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:19 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +1% WYO +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:06 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WYO +0.5 pts |
When it happened
San Diego State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:29 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expectedWyoming converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% WYO | WYO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:42 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +6% WYO | WYO: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 6:20 | E. Sandvik missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 1 from 45+ before | +4% SDSU | WYO: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 8:10 | G. Plascencia missed a 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +3% WYO | SDSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 2:58 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% WYO | WYO: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 14:13 | Wyoming converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +5% WYO | WYO: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 13:33 | Pass Interference on San Diego State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WYO | WYO: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 12:29 | Wyoming fumbled and San Diego State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% SDSU | WYO: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wyoming 0% · San Diego State 100%
- Final margin
- San Diego State by 17
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for Wyoming
- Luck-adjusted margin
- San Diego State by 17.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Wyoming 0% · San Diego State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Wyoming · 
San Diego State
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- New Mexico at UNLV UNM 40–35 · replay 70% for the winner
- Hawai'i at San José State SJSU 45–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Fresno State at Boise State FRES 30–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner