Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Fresno State at Boise State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Boise State 30–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Fresno State wins 10 of 10.
An off day for Boise State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff Boise State was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:52 left): C. Boomer had a 45-yard field goal blocked, worth 8 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 30 |
|---|---|
 Boise State Broncos | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Fresno State about even · −4 Boise State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 10, Boise State wins 0.
- 1 FRES 35 BOIS 0
- 2 FRES 27 BOIS 0
- 3 FRES 23 BOIS 0
- 4 FRES 28 BOIS 7
- 5 FRES 19 BOIS 0
- 6 FRES 17 BOIS 0
- 7 FRES 20 BOIS 6
- 8 FRES 19 BOIS 7
- 9 FRES 9 BOIS 0
- 10 FRES 6 BOIS 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Boise State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Fresno State it would win 77% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
73 points apart for Boise State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.16 | +0.07 | worse by 0.23 |
| Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | +0.08 | better by 0.29 |
| Boise State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.16 | worse by 0.38 |
| Boise State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.16 | +0.05 | better by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 96% of them, Boise State 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 62.3% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Boise State by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Boise State by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Boise State by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Boomer, 45 yds blocked · 63% expected
- D. Lynch, 36 yds made · 78% expected
- D. Lynch, 43 yds made · 66% expected
- D. Lynch, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Fresno State 8 for 46 yards, Boise State 9 for 94 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:00 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 12:03 | Holding on Boise State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% FRES +2.2 pts |
| Q1 11:51 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +1.1 pts |
| Q1 11:30 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | Roughing the Passer on Boise State, 15 yards | +3% FRES +1.9 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.6 pts |
| Q1 3:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on Boise State, 9 yards | +2% FRES +1.3 pts |
| Q1 0:43 | False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:20 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +1.0 pts |
| Q2 13:56 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | +2% FRES +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BOIS +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Fresno State, 11 yards | +2% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Holding on Fresno State, 5 yards | +1% BOIS +0.3 pts |
| Q3 7:54 | Delay of Game on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BOIS +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:14 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yards | +3% FRES +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:14 | Pass Interference on Boise State, 15 yards | 0% FRES +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Boise State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:52 | C. Boomer had a 45-yard field goal blockedKicks · 63% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +8% FRES | BOIS: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 7:35 | Boise State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% BOIS | BOIS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 2:07 | Boise State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% BOIS | BOIS: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 0:05 | D. Lynch made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +6% BOIS | FRES: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 15:00 | Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on Fresno State, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +5% FRES | FRES: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 11:48 | Boise State fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% FRES | BOIS: Turnover |
| 7 | Q3 5:14 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Boise State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% FRES | FRES: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 0:44 | Fresno State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% FRES | FRES: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 100% · Boise State 0%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 23
- Luck in points
- 4.5 for Fresno State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 18.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 96% · Boise State 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Fresno State · 
Boise State
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- New Mexico at UNLV UNM 40–35 · replay 70% for the winner
- Hawai'i at San José State SJSU 45–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Wyoming at San Diego State SDSU 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner