Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
New Mexico at UNLV, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
New Mexico beat UNLV 40–35, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff UNLV was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:31 left): Personal Foul on New Mexico, 15 yards, worth 26 points of win probability to UNLV.
Final
 New Mexico Lobos | 40 |
|---|---|
 UNLV Rebels | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +30 New Mexico lucky · −30 UNLV
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico wins 7, UNLV wins 3.
- 1 UNM 49 UNLV 14
- 2 UNM 31 UNLV 3
- 3 UNM 34 UNLV 14
- 4 UNM 35 UNLV 20
- 5 UNM 28 UNLV 17
- 6 UNM 31 UNLV 24
- 7 UNM 20 UNLV 17
- 8 UNM 14 UNLV 17
- 9 UNM 20 UNLV 28
- 10 UNM 38 UNLV 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico wins 70% of them, UNLV 30%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: New Mexico by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico by 17+ | 30.8% |
| New Mexico by 9–16 | 18.3% |
| New Mexico by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 4.6% |
| UNLV by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| UNLV by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| UNLV by 17+ | 5.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Drzewiecki, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- L. Drzewiecki, 40 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: New Mexico 9 for 75 yards, UNLV 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:48 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +3% UNLV +1.3 pts |
| Q1 1:40 | Delay of Game on UNLV, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNM +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:14 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +2% UNLV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:24 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards | +1% UNLV +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:34 | Illegal Formation on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UNLV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:31 | Personal Foul on New Mexico, 15 yards | +26% UNLV +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | Holding on New Mexico, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% UNLV +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:57 | Ineligible Downfield on New Mexico, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +6% UNLV +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:48 | Holding on UNLV, 10 yards | 0% UNM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:49 | False Start on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:11 | Offside on New Mexico, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNLV +0.1 pts |
When it happened
UNLV’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:55 | UNLV fumbled and New Mexico recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% UNM | UNLV: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 8:31 | Personal Foul on New Mexico, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +26% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:35 | New Mexico converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% UNM | UNM: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 13:44 | UNLV fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% UNLV | UNLV: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 7:30 | UNLV converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +14% UNLV | UNLV: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:17 | New Mexico converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +17% UNM | UNM: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:56 | UNLV was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +8% UNM | UNLV: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | UNLV was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedUNLV was stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedUNLV fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% UNLV | UNLV: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico 34% · UNLV 66%
- Final margin
- New Mexico by 5
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for New Mexico
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UNLV by 3.0
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico 70% · UNLV 30% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
New Mexico · 
UNLV
More from Week 10 2025
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Hawai'i at San José State SJSU 45–38 · replay 78% for the winner
- Fresno State at Boise State FRES 30–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Wyoming at San Diego State SDSU 24–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner
- Michigan State at Minnesota MINN 23–20 · replay 41% for the winner
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner