luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

West Virginia at Houston, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

West Virginia beat Houston 45–35, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, West Virginia wins 4 of 10.

Before kickoff Houston was an 81% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:33 left): Return touchdown by West Virginia, worth 37 points of win probability to West Virginia.

Final

West Virginia Mountaineers 45
Houston Cougars 35

November 1, 2025 · TDECU Stadium · Closing line: Houston −13.5

Luck index +58 West Virginia lucky · −58 Houston

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. West Virginia wins 4, Houston wins 6.

  1. 1 WVU 40 HOU 17
  2. 2 WVU 14 HOU 0
  3. 3 WVU 24 HOU 16
  4. 4 WVU 20 HOU 17
  5. 5 WVU 17 HOU 19
  6. 6 WVU 14 HOU 20
  7. 7 WVU 14 HOU 24
  8. 8 WVU 14 HOU 28
  9. 9 WVU 7 HOU 26
  10. 10 WVU 17 HOU 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

West Virginia wins 42% of them, Houston 58%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: West Virginia by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
West Virginia by 17+9.8%
West Virginia by 9–1610.8%
West Virginia by 1–817.3%
Level after regulation5.0%
Houston by 1–821.4%
Houston by 9–1616.7%
Houston by 17+19.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to Houston: the final margin was West Virginia by 10, without the luck West Virginia by 15.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: West Virginia 8 for 85 yards, Houston 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:01 Face Mask on West Virginia, 15 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 11:44 Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards +3% HOU +1.2 pts
Q2 11:20 Holding on Houston, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% WVU +1.1 pts
Q2 8:24 False Start on West Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q2 7:34 Face Mask on West Virginia, 15 yards +4% HOU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:33 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q4 11:28 False Start on Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WVU +1.0 pts
Q4 9:21 Helping the Runner on West Virginia, 5 yards +1% HOU +0.3 pts
Q4 6:34 Pass Interference on West Virginia, 15 yards 0% HOU +0.9 pts

When it happened

Houston’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Houston was ahead in it, below while West Virginia was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:03 Houston converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q3 7:48 Houston converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:33 Holding on West Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment callsReturn touchdown by West VirginiaSpecial teams +37% WVU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:59 Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:54 Houston fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:41 Houston converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:54 West Virginia converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +13% WVU WVU: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:58 West Virginia converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +10% WVU WVU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

West Virginia 98% · Houston 2%

Final margin
West Virginia by 10
Luck in points
5.2 for Houston
Luck-adjusted margin
West Virginia by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
West Virginia 42% · Houston 58% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · West Virginia · Houston

More from Week 10 2025

Every week 10 game, 2025