Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
UCF at Baylor, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Baylor beat UCF 30–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Baylor wins 10 of 10.
An off day for UCF: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Baylor it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff Baylor was a 58% favorite.
Final
 UCF Knights | 3 |
|---|---|
 Baylor Bears | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Baylor about even · −3 UCF
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UCF wins 0, Baylor wins 10.
- 1 UCF 14 BAY 17
- 2 UCF 3 BAY 13
- 3 UCF 14 BAY 28
- 4 UCF 10 BAY 27
- 5 UCF 3 BAY 22
- 6 UCF 3 BAY 24
- 7 UCF 3 BAY 27
- 8 UCF 0 BAY 27
- 9 UCF 0 BAY 31
- 10 UCF 0 BAY 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for UCF
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Baylor it would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for UCF: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| UCF offenseEPA per play gained | −0.20 | +0.09 | worse by 0.29 |
| UCF defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.24 | +0.10 | worse by 0.14 |
| Baylor offenseEPA per play gained | +0.24 | +0.12 | better by 0.13 |
| Baylor defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.20 | +0.14 | better by 0.34 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
UCF wins 3% of them, Baylor 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Baylor by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UCF by 17+ | 0.0% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 2.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Baylor by 1–8 | 7.8% |
| Baylor by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Baylor by 17+ | 73.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hawkins, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- C. Hawkins, 46 yds missed · 62% expected
- C. Hawkins, 28 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Ruelas, 45 yds made · 66% expected
- N. Ruelas, 53 yds missed · 52% expected
- C. Hawkins, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: UCF 8 for 50 yards, Baylor 6 for 75 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:28 | Holding on Baylor, 10 yards | +1% UCF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:40 | Unnecessary Roughness on Baylor, 15 yards | +2% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on Baylor, 15 yards | +2% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:46 | Illegal Motion on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:23 | Delay of Game on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards | +1% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q2 1:44 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:11 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAY +0.1 pts |
| Q3 14:13 | Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards | +2% UCF +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:17 | Chop Block on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BAY +2.2 pts |
| Q4 12:53 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BAY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:58 | Delay of Game on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAY +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:23 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BAY +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Baylor’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | Baylor converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:28 | Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedHolding on Baylor, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UCF | BAY: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 12:03 | Baylor converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 11:14 | Baylor converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +3% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:32 | Baylor was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +3% UCF | BAY: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 8:25 | Baylor converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +2% BAY | BAY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 4:40 | Unnecessary Roughness on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% UCF | UCF: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q1 3:05 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +3% BAY | UCF: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UCF 4% · Baylor 96%
- Final margin
- Baylor by 27
- Luck in points
- 14.2 for Baylor
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Baylor by 12.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UCF 3% · Baylor 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
UCF · 
Baylor
More from Week 10 2025
- West Virginia at Houston WVU 45–35 · replay 42% for the winner
- Arizona State at Iowa State ASU 24–19 · replay 62% for the winner
- Cincinnati at Utah UTAH 45–14 · replay 73% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Kansas KU 38–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Kansas State TTU 43–20 · replay 92% for the winner
- Arizona at Colorado ARIZ 52–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner