luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

Michigan State at Minnesota, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Minnesota beat Michigan State 23–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Minnesota wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Minnesota.

Before kickoff Minnesota was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:33 left): Pass Interference on Michigan State, 6 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Minnesota.

Final (OT)

Michigan State Spartans 20
Minnesota Golden Gophers 23

November 1, 2025 · Huntington Bank Stadium · Closing line: Minnesota −4.5

Luck index +59 Minnesota lucky · −59 Michigan State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Michigan State wins 6, Minnesota wins 4.

  1. 1 MSU 38 MINN 10
  2. 2 MSU 31 MINN 13
  3. 3 MSU 31 MINN 17
  4. 4 MSU 24 MINN 14
  5. 5 MSU 20 MINN 14
  6. 6 MSU 17 MINN 15
  7. 7 MSU 21 MINN 24
  8. 8 MSU 28 MINN 35
  9. 9 MSU 14 MINN 27
  10. 10 MSU 3 MINN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Michigan State wins 59% of them, Minnesota 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Michigan State by 17+17.3%
Michigan State by 9–1620.0%
Michigan State by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation2.5%
Minnesota by 1–821.1%
Minnesota by 9–1610.8%
Minnesota by 17+8.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.4 points to Minnesota: the final margin was Minnesota by 3, without the luck Michigan State by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Connington, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
  • B. Denaburg, 30 yds made · 86% expected
  • B. Denaburg, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
  • M. Connington, 34 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Connington, 23 yds missed · 92% expected
  • M. Connington, 36 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Michigan State 9 for 81 yards, Minnesota 2 for 8 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:32 False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MINN +1.4 pts
Q1 10:13 Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards +3% MINN +1.3 pts
Q1 9:07 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 15 yards 0% MINN +1.5 pts
Q1 0:07 Pass Interference on Minnesota, 3 yards 0% MINN +0.1 pts
Q3 14:34 Delay of Game on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MINN +1.9 pts
Q3 13:57 Face Mask on Michigan State, 15 yards +4% MINN +1.6 pts
Q3 12:16 Offside on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MINN +0.7 pts
Q4 10:46 Illegal Formation on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSU +0.3 pts
Q4 4:36 Offside on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MINN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:45 Face Mask on Michigan State, 15 yards +6% MINN +1.6 pts
Q4 0:33 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 6 yards +14% MINN +2.0 pts

When it happened

Minnesota’s chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Minnesota was ahead in it, below while Michigan State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 13:15 Minnesota fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MINN MINN: Punt
2 Q4 12:46 Minnesota converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% MINN MINN: Punt
3 Q4 10:56 Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% MSU MINN: Punt
4 Q4 9:10 Michigan State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% MSU MSU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:00 Michigan State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% MINN MSU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 3:43 Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% MSU MINN: Punt
7 Q4 0:33 Pass Interference on Michigan State, 6 yardsJudgment calls +14% MINN MINN: Touchdown
8 OT M. Connington made a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him +10% MINN –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Michigan State 85% · Minnesota 15%

Final margin
Minnesota by 3
Luck in points
10.4 for Minnesota
Luck-adjusted margin
Michigan State by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Michigan State 59% · Minnesota 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Michigan State · Minnesota

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