Pac-12 · 2026 season, in progress
San Diego State Aztecs: luck and expected wins
San Diego State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck cost 0.6: the 26th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often San Diego State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Portland State | W 53–20 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 2 | @ UCLA | L 10–28 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 3 | vs James Madison | L 13–26 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 4 | @ Toledo | L 16–41 | 1% | −1 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | San Diego State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Texas State |  Texas State by 1.2 | 47% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Oregon State |  Oregon State by 6.9 | 33% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs Fresno State |  Fresno State by 0.2 | 50% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | at Colorado State |  Colorado State by 1.0 | 48% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Washington State |  San Diego State by 2.1 | 55% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Utah State | San Diego State by 4.8 | 61% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at Boise State |  Boise State by 17.1 | 16% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in San Diego State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.06 | +12.8 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.06 | +1.7 |
| Kicks | −0.10 | −0.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins San Diego State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | vs San José State | W 25–3 | 77% | +23 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Portland State | W 53–20 | 80% | +20 |
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Northern Illinois | W 6–3 | 82% | +18 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Boise State | W 17–7 | 83% | +17 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs California | W 34–0 | 92% | +8 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses San Diego State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | @ New Mexico | L 17–23 | 74% | −74 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs James Madison | L 13–26 | 60% | −60 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Washington State | L 13–36 | 56% | −56 |
| 2025 Isleta New Mexico Bowl | vs North Texas | L 47–49 | 22% | −22 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ UCLA | L 10–28 | 18% | −18 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 9–3 | 9.6 | −0.6 | 1–1 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Stony Brook | W 42–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Washington State | L 13–36 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 4 | vs California | W 34–0 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 5 | @ Northern Illinois | W 6–3 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 6 | vs Colorado State | W 45–24 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 7 | @ Nevada | W 44–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 9 | @ Fresno State | W 23–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 10 | vs Wyoming | W 24–7 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 11 | @ Hawai'i | L 6–38 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 12 | vs Boise State | W 17–7 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 13 | vs San José State | W 25–3 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 14 | @ New Mexico | L 17–23 | 74% | −74 |
| Isleta New Mexico Bowl | vs North Texas | L 47–49 | 22% | −22 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Pac-12 teams by luck
- Pac-12: Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Texas State,
Utah State, 
Washington State
How many wins does San Diego State have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.6 wins.
Was San Diego State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.6 wins of luck, the 26th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was San Diego State’s luckiest season?
2025: 9–3 from play worth 9.6 wins, −0.6 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 1–3 from play worth 1.6 (−0.6).