Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
San Diego State at Toledo, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat San Diego State 41–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
An off day for San Diego State: its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Toledo it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff Toledo was a 56% favorite.
Final
 San Diego State Aztecs | 16 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Toledo about even · −1 San Diego State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. San Diego State wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 SDSU 17 TOL 24
- 2 SDSU 10 TOL 23
- 3 SDSU 0 TOL 17
- 4 SDSU 16 TOL 37
- 5 SDSU 3 TOL 27
- 6 SDSU 7 TOL 34
- 7 SDSU 14 TOL 45
- 8 SDSU 10 TOL 45
- 9 SDSU 3 TOL 44
- 10 SDSU 7 TOL 58
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for San Diego State
Its offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against Toledo it would win 35% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for San Diego State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | +0.04 | worse by 0.27 |
| San Diego State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.02 | worse by 0.16 |
| Toledo offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.04 | better by 0.14 |
| Toledo defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.01 | better by 0.25 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
San Diego State wins 1% of them, Toledo 99%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| San Diego State by 17+ | 0.1% |
| San Diego State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| San Diego State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 4.0% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 7.7% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 87.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. DiLeva, 25 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Griffith, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- R. Griffith, 49 yds made · 55% expected
- R. Griffith, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: San Diego State 4 for 35 yards, Toledo 10 for 83 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:09 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TOL +1.1 pts |
| Q1 14:01 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 8:34 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yards | +3% TOL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 12:54 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +3% SDSU +1.4 pts |
| Q2 6:40 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards | +4% TOL +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:15 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | +1% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SDSU +0.5 pts |
| Q3 8:57 | Personal Foul on Toledo, 15 yards | 0% SDSU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | False Start on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:42 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 13 yards | 0% SDSU +4.0 pts |
| Q3 3:20 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:32 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% SDSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:36 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 3:10 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SDSU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:15 | San Diego State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +6% SDSU | SDSU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:59 | C. DiLeva made a 25-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +5% TOL | SDSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:34 | Holding on San Diego State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:51 | San Diego State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +4% TOL | SDSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:14 | Toledo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 3:20 | Toledo converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% TOL | TOL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q1 0:16 | Toledo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +7% SDSU | TOL: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 6:40 | Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TOL | TOL: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
San Diego State 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 25
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for San Diego State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 28.0
- Replay with same day's form
- San Diego State 1% · Toledo 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
San Diego State · 
Toledo
More from Week 4 2026
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Robert Morris at Buffalo BUF 31–28 · replay 63% for the winner
- South Florida at Bowling Green USF 14–6 · replay 68% for the winner
- UNLV at Akron UNLV 38–10 · replay 71% for the winner
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Troy at Utah State USU 21–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- UConn at Miami (OH) M-OH 24–21 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ball State at Kent State KENT 26–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Sacramento State MASS 35–6 · replay 94% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- Boise State at Western Michigan BOIS 32–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Lindenwood at Eastern Michigan EMU 29–3 · replay 98% for the winner