Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Troy at Utah State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Utah State beat Troy 21–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:13 left): E. Head missed a 28-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to Utah State.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 10 |
|---|---|
 Utah State Aggies | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Utah State about even · −25 Troy
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 2, Utah State wins 8.
- 1 TROY 40 USU 20
- 2 TROY 17 USU 13
- 3 TROY 28 USU 31
- 4 TROY 17 USU 21
- 5 TROY 24 USU 31
- 6 TROY 20 USU 30
- 7 TROY 17 USU 31
- 8 TROY 13 USU 31
- 9 TROY 10 USU 33
- 10 TROY 7 USU 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 25% of them, Utah State 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah State by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 5.3% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Utah State by 1–8 | 23.2% |
| Utah State by 9–16 | 16.5% |
| Utah State by 17+ | 35.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 27 yds missed · 89% expected
- E. Head, 45 yds made · 62% expected
- E. Head, 28 yds missed · 88% expected
- E. Head, 48 yds missed · 57% expected
Penalties: Troy 7 for 75 yards, Utah State 13 for 105 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:55 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yards | +5% TROY +2.8 pts |
| Q1 5:07 | Pass Interference on Utah State, 15 yards | +2% TROY +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:14 | Pass Interference on Utah State, 5 yards | +4% TROY +1.7 pts |
| Q2 3:41 | Delay of Game on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:44 | Face Mask on Troy, 15 yards | +3% USU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 9:48 | Ineligible Downfield on Troy, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% USU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards | +3% USU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 7:04 | Face Mask on Troy, 15 yards | +6% USU +2.4 pts |
| Q3 5:46 | Pass Interference on Troy, 5 yards | +1% USU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 5:41 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +3% TROY +1.5 pts |
| Q3 4:09 | Face Mask on Utah State, 15 yards | +3% TROY +1.6 pts |
| Q3 0:02 | Offside on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:18 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:12 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:54 | Holding on Utah State, 10 yards | +1% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:48 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards | +1% USU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 10:09 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:20 | False Start on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.1 pts |
| Q4 3:17 | Delay of Game on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USU +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Utah State’s chance of winning
As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:55 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Utah State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 13:46 | K. Afrookhteh missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% TROY | USU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 14:14 | Utah State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 12:24 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +4% TROY | USU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 11:42 | Utah State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +6% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 9:48 | Ineligible Downfield on Troy, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 7:04 | Face Mask on Troy, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% USU | USU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 1:13 | Utah State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedE. Head missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +9% USU | USU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 0% · Utah State 100%
- Final margin
- Utah State by 11
- Luck in points
- 4.6 for Troy
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah State by 15.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 25% · Utah State 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Troy · 
Utah State
More from Week 4 2026
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Tulane TULN 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Rice at Fresno State FRES 38–24 · replay 59% for the winner
- Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe FAU 45–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Georgia State GAST 35–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Gardner-Webb at Marshall MRSH 36–35 · replay 81% for the winner
- Louisiana at Charlotte UL 34–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- James Madison at Old Dominion JMU 46–20 · replay 93% for the winner
- Colorado State at UTSA UTSA 59–45 · replay 96% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner