luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Kennesaw State at Arkansas State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Arkansas State beat Kennesaw State 17–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Arkansas State wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 1:33 left): Arkansas State converted 3rd & 11, worth 11 points of win probability to Arkansas State.

Final

Kennesaw State Owls 14
Arkansas State Red Wolves 17

September 26, 2026 · Centennial Bank Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas State −6.5

Luck index +44 Arkansas State lucky · −44 Kennesaw State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 4, Arkansas State wins 6.

  1. 1 KENN 33 ARST 14
  2. 2 KENN 24 ARST 13
  3. 3 KENN 24 ARST 17
  4. 4 KENN 10 ARST 7
  5. 5 KENN 10 ARST 13
  6. 6 KENN 20 ARST 24
  7. 7 KENN 20 ARST 28
  8. 8 KENN 3 ARST 14
  9. 9 KENN 15 ARST 31
  10. 10 KENN 3 ARST 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kennesaw State wins 44% of them, Arkansas State 56%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kennesaw State by 17+7.3%
Kennesaw State by 9–1613.6%
Kennesaw State by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation1.4%
Arkansas State by 1–824.4%
Arkansas State by 9–1618.2%
Arkansas State by 17+12.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to Arkansas State: the final margin was Arkansas State by 3, without the luck Kennesaw State by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Van Andel, 44 yds missed · 67% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 42 yds missed · 70% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Kinney, 32 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kennesaw State 7 for 65 yards, Arkansas State 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENN +0.7 pts
Q1 4:38 Illegal Formation on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.3 pts
Q2 13:34 Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 15 yards +2% ARST +0.9 pts
Q2 8:42 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +2% ARST +0.6 pts
Q2 7:31 Offside on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KENN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:52 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KENN +0.8 pts
Q2 0:21 Roughing the Passer on Arkansas State, 15 yards +1% KENN +0.2 pts
Q2 0:13 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +1% ARST +0.5 pts
Q3 4:20 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST +0.8 pts
Q3 3:44 Illegal Use of Hands on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +4% ARST +1.3 pts
Q3 2:47 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards +6% KENN +1.5 pts
Q4 8:01 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards +6% KENN +1.1 pts
Q4 7:38 False Start on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARST +0.8 pts
Q4 5:30 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +9% ARST +1.3 pts

When it happened

Arkansas State’s chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Arkansas State was ahead in it, below while Kennesaw State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:05 Arkansas State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% ARST ARST: Missed field goal
2 Q3 8:12 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% KENN KENN: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:45 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% KENN KENN: Touchdown
4 Q3 2:47 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% KENN KENN: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 1:33 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% ARST ARST: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:01 Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% KENN KENN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 6:26 Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% KENN KENN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 5:30 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% ARST ARST: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kennesaw State 53% · Arkansas State 47%

Final margin
Arkansas State by 3
Luck in points
3.6 for Arkansas State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kennesaw State by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Kennesaw State 44% · Arkansas State 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Kennesaw State · Arkansas State

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