luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Long Island University at Florida International, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Florida International beat Long Island University 20–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff Florida International was a 99% favorite.

Final

Long Island University Sharks 3
Florida International Panthers 20

September 26, 2026 · Pitbull Stadium · Closing line: Florida International −37.5

Luck index +28 Florida International lucky · −28 Long Island University

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Long Island University wins 3, Florida International wins 7.

  1. 1 LIU 30 FIU 14
  2. 2 LIU 18 FIU 10
  3. 3 LIU 12 FIU 9
  4. 4 LIU 2 FIU 3
  5. 5 LIU 9 FIU 13
  6. 6 LIU 14 FIU 21
  7. 7 LIU 6 FIU 17
  8. 8 LIU 0 FIU 14
  9. 9 LIU 3 FIU 21
  10. 10 LIU 0 FIU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Long Island University wins 28% of them, Florida International 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Florida International by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Long Island University by 17+2.8%
Long Island University by 9–167.8%
Long Island University by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.3%
Florida International by 1–827.0%
Florida International by 9–1620.3%
Florida International by 17+24.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Florida International: the final margin was Florida International by 17, without the luck Florida International by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Johnson, 46 yds made · 58% expected
  • R. Czeremcha, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • W. Johnson, 37 yds missed · 75% expected
  • R. Czeremcha, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Czeremcha, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Long Island University 3 for 36 yards, Florida International 7 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:34 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIU +0.7 pts
Q1 7:50 Holding on Florida International, 8 yards 0% LIU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:07 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LIU +0.9 pts
Q3 3:10 Roughing the Passer on Long Island University, 11 yards 0% FIU +1.4 pts
Q4 9:11 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LIU +3.9 pts
Q4 9:01 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LIU +0.4 pts
Q4 6:31 Holding on Long Island University, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% FIU +1.7 pts
Q4 5:07 Kick Catch Interference on Long Island University, 15 yards 0% FIU +0.9 pts
Q4 5:04 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards 0% LIU +1.3 pts
Q4 4:33 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% LIU +1.9 pts

When it happened

Florida International’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Florida International was ahead in it, below while Long Island University was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:43 Florida International converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +0% FIU FIU: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:25 Long Island University converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +0% LIU LIU: Field goal
3 Q2 9:38 Florida International fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% FIU FIU: Missed field goal
4 Q2 4:25 Florida International fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +0% FIU FIU: Missed field goal
5 Q2 1:48 Long Island University converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +0% LIU LIU: Missed field goal
6 Q2 0:46 W. Johnson missed a 37-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him +0% FIU LIU: Turnover
7 Q3 10:01 Long Island University converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +1% LIU LIU: Turnover
8 Q4 6:31 Holding on Long Island University, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% FIU FIU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Long Island University 6% · Florida International 94%

Final margin
Florida International by 17
Luck in points
6.3 for Florida International
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida International by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Long Island University 28% · Florida International 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Long Island University · Florida International

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