Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 50 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Missouri State at SMU, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
SMU beat Missouri State 34–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, SMU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff SMU was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Missouri State Bears | 24 |
|---|---|
 SMU Mustangs | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 SMU about even · −1 Missouri State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Missouri State wins 0, SMU wins 10.
- 1 MOST 14 SMU 21
- 2 MOST 10 SMU 23
- 3 MOST 14 SMU 31
- 4 MOST 10 SMU 31
- 5 MOST 7 SMU 31
- 6 MOST 10 SMU 38
- 7 MOST 14 SMU 45
- 8 MOST 3 SMU 38
- 9 MOST 10 SMU 49
- 10 MOST 7 SMU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Missouri State wins 1% of them, SMU 99%. The line is what actually happened: SMU by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Missouri State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Missouri State by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Missouri State by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| SMU by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| SMU by 9–16 | 9.5% |
| SMU by 17+ | 85.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- Y. Obeid, 35 yds made · 81% expected
- N. Reed, 29 yds missed · 86% expected
- B. Baird, 42 yds missed · 69% expected
Penalties: Missouri State 8 for 60 yards, SMU 12 for 111 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:54 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 15 yards | +1% SMU +2.6 pts |
| Q1 6:41 | Personal Foul on Missouri State, 4 yards | 0% SMU +0.2 pts |
| Q1 2:21 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on Missouri State, 1 yard | +1% SMU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 8:44 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:34 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% MOST +1.6 pts |
| Q2 6:19 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | +1% MOST +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:20 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:07 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% MOST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | Helping the Runner on SMU, 5 yards | 0% MOST +0.3 pts |
| Q3 5:53 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards | 0% MOST +1.5 pts |
| Q3 0:02 | Pass Interference on SMU, 15 yards | +1% MOST +3.6 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Pass Interference on SMU, 1 yard, wiping out the play | +3% MOST +7.6 pts |
| Q4 10:40 | Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards | +1% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:36 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 15 yards | +3% SMU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 8:22 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MOST +2.2 pts |
| Q4 5:33 | Delay of Game on Missouri State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SMU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:07 | Offside on SMU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MOST +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:59 | Unnecessary Roughness on SMU, 15 yards | 0% MOST +1.6 pts |
When it happened
SMU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:41 | Return touchdown by Missouri StateSpecial teams | +8% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 3:57 | N. Reed missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him | +3% MOST | SMU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 12:16 | Pass Interference on SMU, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% MOST | MOST: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:22 | SMU was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% MOST | SMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:11 | Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% SMU | MOST: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:36 | Face Mask on Missouri State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 8:22 | Holding on SMU, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% MOST | MOST: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 5:34 | SMU converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% SMU | SMU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Missouri State 1% · SMU 99%
- Final margin
- SMU by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for Missouri State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- SMU by 13.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Missouri State 1% · SMU 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 50 of the 58 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Missouri State · 
SMU
More from Week 4 2026
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Stanford STAN 34–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Clemson at California CLEM 24–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Boston College VT 21–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State JXST 23–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky WKU 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner