luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 59 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Western Kentucky beat Mercyhurst 52–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Kentucky wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 99% favorite.

Final

Mercyhurst Lakers 7
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 52

September 26, 2026 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Closing line: Western Kentucky −39.5

Luck index 0 Western Kentucky about even · 0 Mercyhurst

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mercyhurst wins 0, Western Kentucky wins 10.

  1. 1 MERC 17 WKU 31
  2. 2 MERC 14 WKU 35
  3. 3 MERC 0 WKU 24
  4. 4 MERC 0 WKU 28
  5. 5 MERC 0 WKU 31
  6. 6 MERC 7 WKU 42
  7. 7 MERC 0 WKU 38
  8. 8 MERC 7 WKU 49
  9. 9 MERC 3 WKU 48
  10. 10 MERC 0 WKU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Mercyhurst wins 0% of them, Western Kentucky 100%. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 45.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mercyhurst by 17+0.0%
Mercyhurst by 9–160.0%
Mercyhurst by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Western Kentucky by 1–80.7%
Western Kentucky by 9–162.8%
Western Kentucky by 17+96.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.7 points to Western Kentucky: the final margin was Western Kentucky by 45, without the luck Western Kentucky by 26.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Mercyhurst 2 for 15 yards, Western Kentucky 0 for 0 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 1:49 False Start on Mercyhurst, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% WKU +11.1 pts
Q4 4:15 Holding on Mercyhurst, 10 yards 0% WKU +0.4 pts

When it happened

Western Kentucky’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Western Kentucky was ahead in it, below while Mercyhurst was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:19 Mercyhurst was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +0% WKU MERC: Punt
2 Q1 8:33 Mercyhurst was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +0% WKU MERC: Punt
3 Q1 5:29 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% MERC WKU: Field goal
4 Q1 4:56 Western Kentucky converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +0% WKU WKU: Field goal
5 Q1 1:28 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +0% MERC WKU: Field goal
6 Q1 0:12 Mercyhurst was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +0% WKU MERC: Punt
7 Q2 11:15 Mercyhurst was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% WKU MERC: Punt
8 Q3 1:49 False Start on Mercyhurst, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +1% WKU WKU: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mercyhurst 0% · Western Kentucky 100%

Final margin
Western Kentucky by 45
Luck in points
18.7 for Western Kentucky
Luck-adjusted margin
Western Kentucky by 26.3
Replay with same day's form
Mercyhurst 0% · Western Kentucky 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 52 of the 59 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

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