Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Delaware at Virginia, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Virginia beat Delaware 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Virginia was a 90% favorite.
Final
 Delaware Blue Hens | 3 |
|---|---|
 Virginia Cavaliers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Virginia about even · 0 Delaware
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Delaware wins 0, Virginia wins 10.
- 1 DEL 3 UVA 29
- 2 DEL 0 UVA 34
- 3 DEL 7 UVA 44
- 4 DEL 0 UVA 42
- 5 DEL 3 UVA 48
- 6 DEL 16 UVA 65
- 7 DEL 7 UVA 59
- 8 DEL 3 UVA 59
- 9 DEL 7 UVA 70
- 10 DEL 0 UVA 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Delaware wins 0% of them, Virginia 100%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Delaware by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Virginia by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Virginia by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Virginia by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Bettridge, 37 yds missed · 79% expected
- T. Smack, 39 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Delaware 8 for 78 yards, Virginia 7 for 61 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:43 | Delay of Game on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.7 pts |
| Q1 6:31 | Offside on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:58 | Roughing the Passer on Delaware, 13 yards | 0% UVA +0.4 pts |
| Q1 4:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on Virginia, 15 yards | 0% DEL +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:55 | Personal Foul on Delaware, 15 yards | +1% UVA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yards | +1% DEL +2.7 pts |
| Q2 8:52 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% UVA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 6:31 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +1% UVA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 5:35 | False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UVA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:54 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEL +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | 0% UVA +1.8 pts |
| Q3 5:55 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:11 | Pass Interference on Virginia, 6 yards | 0% DEL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 10:39 | Unnecessary Roughness on Virginia, 15 yards | 0% DEL +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Virginia’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:14 | Virginia converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +1% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:05 | Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% DEL | UVA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 9:24 | Virginia converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +2% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:55 | Personal Foul on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 10:07 | Holding on Virginia, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 8:52 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% UVA | UVA: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:31 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% UVA | UVA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 5:35 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedFalse Start on Delaware, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% UVA | DEL: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Delaware 0% · Virginia 100%
- Final margin
- Virginia by 39
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Virginia by 39.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Delaware 0% · Virginia 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Delaware · 
Virginia
More from Week 4 2026
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Arkansas State ARST 17–14 · replay 56% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Stanford STAN 34–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Long Island University at Florida International FIU 20–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Clemson at California CLEM 24–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Boston College VT 21–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- New Mexico at New Mexico State UNM 42–18 · replay 95% for the winner
- Liberty at Coastal Carolina LIB 34–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State JXST 23–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Mercyhurst at Western Kentucky WKU 52–7 · replay 100% for the winner