Week 4 2026 · September 25, 2026
Clemson at California, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Clemson beat California 24–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.
Before kickoff Clemson was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:20 left): Pass Interference on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Clemson.
Final
 Clemson Tigers | 24 |
|---|---|
 California Golden Bears | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Clemson lucky · −27 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Clemson wins 7, California wins 3.
- 1 CLEM 35 CAL 7
- 2 CLEM 20 CAL 0
- 3 CLEM 16 CAL 0
- 4 CLEM 13 CAL 0
- 5 CLEM 27 CAL 17
- 6 CLEM 7 CAL 0
- 7 CLEM 10 CAL 7
- 8 CLEM 0 CAL 3
- 9 CLEM 28 CAL 35
- 10 CLEM 3 CAL 19
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Clemson wins 73% of them, California 27%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Clemson by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Clemson by 17+ | 24.8% |
| Clemson by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Clemson by 1–8 | 22.8% |
| Level after regulation | 7.1% |
| California by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| California by 9–16 | 6.6% |
| California by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Hauser, 30 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Meyer, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
- C. Meyer, 30 yds made · 85% expected
- N. Hauser, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
Penalties: Clemson 6 for 63 yards, California 7 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:34 | Pass Interference on Clemson, 13 yards | +4% CAL +1.8 pts |
| Q1 10:35 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CAL +1.7 pts |
| Q1 8:49 | Personal Foul on Clemson, 15 yards | +2% CAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:07 | Personal Foul on California, 5 yards | +2% CLEM +1.0 pts |
| Q1 1:28 | False Start on Clemson, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:44 | Offside on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% CLEM +3.3 pts |
| Q2 6:16 | Unnecessary Roughness on California, 1 yard | +2% CLEM +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | +4% CAL +1.3 pts |
| Q2 1:48 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +4% CLEM +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Holding on Clemson, 10 yards | +2% CAL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 14:53 | Offside on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLEM +0.2 pts |
| Q4 13:20 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +11% CLEM +4.0 pts |
| Q4 8:18 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +2% CLEM +0.6 pts |
When it happened
California’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:44 | Offside on California, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 8:42 | Clemson converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +6% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 7:13 | Clemson converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +5% CLEM | CLEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 1:29 | C. Meyer missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before | +5% CLEM | CAL: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 9:26 | California was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CLEM | CAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 7:53 | Clemson converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% CLEM | CLEM: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 13:20 | Pass Interference on California, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% CLEM | CLEM: Missed field goal |
| 8 | Q4 9:14 | N. Hauser missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before | +6% CAL | CLEM: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Clemson 70% · California 30%
- Final margin
- Clemson by 14
- Luck in points
- 10.1 for Clemson
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Clemson by 3.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Clemson 73% · California 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Clemson · 
California
More from Week 4 2026
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Stanford STAN 34–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Boston College VT 21–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bucknell at Pittsburgh PITT 59–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Florida State FSU 34–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- William & Mary at Duke DUKE 62–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Virginia UVA 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner