Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
William & Mary at Duke, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Duke beat William & Mary 62–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Duke wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Duke was a 100% favorite.
Final
 William & Mary Tribe | 7 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 62 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Duke about even · 0 William & Mary
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. William & Mary wins 0, Duke wins 10.
- 1 W&M 7 DUKE 29
- 2 W&M 7 DUKE 39
- 3 W&M 3 DUKE 40
- 4 W&M 7 DUKE 47
- 5 W&M 10 DUKE 53
- 6 W&M 7 DUKE 53
- 7 W&M 13 DUKE 63
- 8 W&M 0 DUKE 54
- 9 W&M 0 DUKE 58
- 10 W&M 7 DUKE 75
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
William & Mary wins 0% of them, Duke 100%. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 55.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| William & Mary by 17+ | 0.0% |
| William & Mary by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| William & Mary by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Duke by 17+ | 97.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Lipinski, 53 yds blocked · 49% expected
- C. Salas, 32 yds made · 84% expected
- C. Salas, 39 yds made · 74% expected
Penalties: William & Mary 6 for 55 yards, Duke 6 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:50 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | 0% W&M +0.6 pts |
| Q1 6:15 | Personal Foul on William & Mary, 15 yards | 0% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q1 5:01 | Holding on William & Mary, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% DUKE +2.1 pts |
| Q1 2:53 | Face Mask on William & Mary, 15 yards | 0% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q1 1:30 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards | 0% W&M +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:57 | False Start on William & Mary, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:11 | Running Into the Kicker on Duke, 5 yards | 0% W&M +0.4 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | Delay of Game on William & Mary, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on Duke, 15 yards | 0% W&M +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | False Start on William & Mary, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DUKE +1.5 pts |
| Q3 11:33 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% W&M +3.2 pts |
| Q3 9:04 | Holding on Duke, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% W&M +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:39 | Duke converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +0% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:00 | Duke converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +0% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:45 | Duke was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% W&M | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:01 | Holding on William & Mary, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 3:42 | William & Mary converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +0% W&M | W&M: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:53 | Face Mask on William & Mary, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 7 | Q1 0:26 | Duke converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +0% DUKE | DUKE: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 13:24 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +0% W&M | DUKE: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
William & Mary 0% · Duke 100%
- Final margin
- Duke by 55
- Luck in points
- 12.1 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Duke by 42.9
- Replay with same day's form
- William & Mary 0% · Duke 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
William & Mary · 
Duke
More from Week 4 2026
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- App State at NC State NCSU 41–31 · replay 53% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Stanford STAN 34–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Clemson at California CLEM 24–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Virginia Tech at Boston College VT 21–14 · replay 81% for the winner
- Missouri State at SMU SMU 34–24 · replay 99% for the winner
- Bucknell at Pittsburgh PITT 59–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Arkansas at Florida State FSU 34–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Delaware at Virginia UVA 42–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Miami MIA 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner