luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Wake Forest at Louisville, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Wake Forest beat Louisville 30–27, but the replays lean toward Louisville: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 24 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Before kickoff Louisville was a 77% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:29 left): C. Hilbert missed a 42-yard field goal, worth 22 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Final

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 30
Louisville Cardinals 27

September 26, 2026 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Closing line: Louisville −11.5

Luck index +62 Wake Forest very lucky · −62 Louisville

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 4, Louisville wins 6.

  1. 1 WAKE 37 LOU 14
  2. 2 WAKE 27 LOU 14
  3. 3 WAKE 21 LOU 14
  4. 4 WAKE 28 LOU 24
  5. 5 WAKE 21 LOU 23
  6. 6 WAKE 27 LOU 33
  7. 7 WAKE 14 LOU 23
  8. 8 WAKE 7 LOU 21
  9. 9 WAKE 17 LOU 35
  10. 10 WAKE 14 LOU 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wake Forest wins 38% of them, Louisville 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wake Forest by 17+8.0%
Wake Forest by 9–1611.2%
Wake Forest by 1–816.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Louisville by 1–822.4%
Louisville by 9–1617.3%
Louisville by 17+21.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to Louisville: the final margin was Wake Forest by 3, without the luck Wake Forest by 8.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Calvert, 39 yds made · 76% expected
  • C. Hilbert, 41 yds made · 72% expected
  • C. Calvert, 35 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Hilbert, 54 yds made · 48% expected
  • C. Calvert, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Hilbert, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
  • N. Keller, 57 yds blocked · 43% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wake Forest 10 for 85 yards, Louisville 8 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 15:00 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.4 pts
Q2 14:55 Roughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yards +3% WAKE +2.1 pts
Q2 14:48 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LOU +0.7 pts
Q2 7:27 Holding on Wake Forest, 10 yards +1% LOU +0.6 pts
Q2 4:34 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% WAKE +1.8 pts
Q2 4:02 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards +4% LOU +1.6 pts
Q2 3:46 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LOU +0.8 pts
Q2 0:47 Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAKE +0.1 pts
Q2 0:42 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU 0.0 pts
Q3 7:12 Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards +5% WAKE +1.6 pts
Q3 5:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Wake Forest, 15 yards +3% LOU +0.9 pts
Q3 3:21 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards, wiping out the play +15% LOU +4.1 pts
Q3 0:48 Intentional Grounding on Louisville, 8 yards +2% WAKE +0.5 pts
Q3 0:04 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LOU +0.6 pts
Q4 14:52 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards +3% WAKE +0.9 pts
Q4 8:37 Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +13% WAKE +2.5 pts
Q4 0:47 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +17% WAKE +1.5 pts

When it happened

Louisville’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 83%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Louisville was ahead in it, below while Wake Forest was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 3:21 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% LOU LOU: Field goal
2 Q4 8:37 Offside on Louisville, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +13% WAKE WAKE: Field goal
3 Q4 6:56 Wake Forest was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% LOU WAKE: Field goal
4 Q4 5:30 Louisville converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +14% LOU LOU: Missed field goal
5 Q4 2:29 C. Hilbert missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him +22% WAKE LOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 0:55 Louisville converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +15% LOU LOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:47 Holding on Louisville, 10 yardsJudgment calls +17% WAKE WAKE: End of game
8 Q4 0:15 N. Keller had a 57-yard field goal blockedKicks · 43% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +12% WAKE –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wake Forest 89% · Louisville 11%

Final margin
Wake Forest by 3
Luck in points
5.7 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
Wake Forest by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Wake Forest 38% · Louisville 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Wake Forest · Louisville

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