ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Wake Forest Demon Deacons: luck and expected wins

Wake Forest is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.1 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 11th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.

2026, game by game

How often Wake Forest wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Akron	W 38–16	92%	+8
Week 2	@ Purdue	W 38–36	65%	+35
Week 3	vs Miami	L 20–33	17%	−17
Week 4	@ Louisville	W 30–27	38%	+62

Wk 1 +8 vs AKR

Wk 2 +35 @ PUR

Wk 3 −17 vs MIA

Wk 4 +62 @ LOU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Wake Forest win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Stanford	Wake Forest by 15.2	83%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at NC State	NC State by 2.7	43%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at California	Wake Forest by 6.2	65%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Virginia	Virginia by 3.5	42%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Merrimack	Wake Forest by 43.4	100%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at SMU	SMU by 7.2	34%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Georgia Tech	Wake Forest by 1.3	53%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Duke	Duke by 3.1	43%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Wake Forest’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.36	+7.5
Pre-snap flags	+0.13	+2.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.13	−2.2

Luckiest wins

Wins Wake Forest takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	@ Virginia	W 16–9	22%	+78
2026 Week 4	@ Louisville	W 30–27	38%	+62
2025 Week 6	@ Virginia Tech	W 30–23	48%	+52
2026 Week 2	@ Purdue	W 38–36	65%	+35
2025 Week 9	vs SMU	W 13–12	70%	+30

Unluckiest losses

Losses Wake Forest would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	vs Georgia Tech	L 29–30	60%	−60
2025 Week 3	vs NC State	L 24–34	60%	−60
2025 Week 14	@ Duke	L 32–49	53%	−53
2026 Week 3	vs Miami	L 20–33	17%	−17
2025 Week 10	@ Florida State	L 7–42	1%	−1

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	7.8	+0.2	4–1	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Kennesaw State	W 10–9	79%	+21
Week 2	vs Western Carolina	W 42–10	100%	0
Week 3	vs NC State	L 24–34	60%	−60
Week 5	vs Georgia Tech	L 29–30	60%	−60
Week 6	@ Virginia Tech	W 30–23	48%	+52
Week 7	@ Oregon State	W 39–14	100%	0
Week 9	vs SMU	W 13–12	70%	+30
Week 10	@ Florida State	L 7–42	1%	−1
Week 11	@ Virginia	W 16–9	22%	+78
Week 12	vs North Carolina	W 28–12	89%	+11
Week 13	vs Delaware	W 52–14	100%	0
Week 14	@ Duke	L 32–49	53%	−53
Duke's Mayo Bowl	vs Mississippi State	W 43–29	80%	+20