luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21

Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech prediction and pick

Our Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets pick: Wake Forest by 1.3, 53% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.

An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.

Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.

Wake Forest at Georgia Tech

Sat, Nov 21, time to be announced · Bobby Dodd Stadium

Wake Forest by 1.3 · 53% to win

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Wake Forest win53.1%
Georgia Tech win46.9%
Middle 50%: Wake Forest by 13 to Georgia Tech by 1050%
Middle 90%: Wake Forest by 29 to Georgia Tech by 2790%
Middle 95%: Wake Forest by 35 to Georgia Tech by 3295%
Exactly Wake Forest by 36.5%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 36.3%
Exactly Wake Forest by 75.0%
Exactly Georgia Tech by 74.7%
Exactly Wake Forest by 143.1%
P50
Half of games like this end between Wake Forest by 13 and Georgia Tech by 10.
P90
9 in 10 between Wake Forest by 29 and Georgia Tech by 27.
P95
19 in 20 between Wake Forest by 35 and Georgia Tech by 32.
Where the forecast comes from
This season, against its opponentsWake Forest+5.8
Home fieldGeorgia Tech+3.1
Last seasonGeorgia Tech+1.3

The season so far

TeamRecordCoin-flip winsLuck in wins
Wake Forest 3–1 2.1 +0.9
Georgia Tech 1–3 2.3 −1.9

Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.

Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech: questions and answers

Who will win Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech?

Our forecast picks Wake Forest, with 53% to win; Georgia Tech win 47% of the time.

What’s the spread for Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech?

Our spread: Wake Forest −1.3. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.

When is Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech?

Saturday, November 21, 2026 (kickoff time to be announced), at Bobby Dodd Stadium.