ACC · 2026 season, in progress

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: luck and expected wins

Georgia Tech is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck cost 1.9: the unluckiest team in FBS. In one-score games: 0–2.

2026, game by game

How often Georgia Tech wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colorado	L 13–14	81%	−81
Week 2	vs Tennessee	L 24–45	67%	−67
Week 3	vs Mercer	W 44–11	98%	+2
Week 4	@ Stanford	L 27–34	41%	−41

Wk 1 −81 vs COLO

Wk 2 −67 vs TENN

Wk 3 +2 vs MER

Wk 4 −41 @ STAN

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Georgia Tech win chance
Week 6 · Oct 10	vs Duke	Duke by 7.6	32%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Virginia Tech	Virginia Tech by 6.1	35%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Boston College	Georgia Tech by 12.4	78%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh by 15.2	18%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Louisville	Louisville by 6.2	36%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Clemson	Clemson by 6.7	35%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Wake Forest	Wake Forest by 1.3	47%
Week 13 · Nov 28	at Georgia	Georgia by 26.9	6%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Georgia Tech’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.13	−4.3
Pre-snap flags	+0.10	−1.4
Fumble bounces	−0.10	−7.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.18	−8.3

Luckiest wins

Wins Georgia Tech takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 3	vs Clemson	W 24–21	33%	+67
2025 Week 5	@ Wake Forest	W 30–29	40%	+60
2025 Week 8	@ Duke	W 27–18	62%	+38
2025 Week 12	@ Boston College	W 36–34	70%	+30
2025 Week 7	vs Virginia Tech	W 35–20	77%	+23

Unluckiest losses

Losses Georgia Tech would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 1	vs Colorado	L 13–14	81%	−81
2026 Week 2	vs Tennessee	L 24–45	67%	−67
2025 Week 14	vs Georgia	L 9–16	65%	−65
2025 Week 10	@ NC State	L 36–48	65%	−65
2026 Week 4	@ Stanford	L 27–34	41%	−41

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–3	8.2	+0.8	4–1	0–1

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Colorado	W 27–20	88%	+12
Week 2	vs Gardner-Webb	W 59–12	100%	0
Week 3	vs Clemson	W 24–21	33%	+67
Week 4	vs Temple	W 45–24	100%	0
Week 5	@ Wake Forest	W 30–29	40%	+60
Week 7	vs Virginia Tech	W 35–20	77%	+23
Week 8	@ Duke	W 27–18	62%	+38
Week 9	vs Syracuse	W 41–16	97%	+3
Week 10	@ NC State	L 36–48	65%	−65
Week 12	@ Boston College	W 36–34	70%	+30
Week 13	vs Pittsburgh	L 28–42	20%	−20
Week 14	vs Georgia	L 9–16	65%	−65
Pop-Tarts Bowl	vs BYU	L 21–25	18%	−18