Pop-Tarts Bowl · December 27, 2025
Georgia Tech vs BYU, Pop-Tarts Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Georgia Tech 25–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 8 of 10. Georgia Tech had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Georgia Tech.
Before kickoff BYU was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:26 left): BYU converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to BYU.
Final
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 21 |
|---|---|
 BYU Cougars | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 BYU about even · −18 Georgia Tech
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Tech wins 2, BYU wins 8.
- 1 GT 31 BYU 20
- 2 GT 24 BYU 21
- 3 GT 28 BYU 31
- 4 GT 21 BYU 27
- 5 GT 28 BYU 38
- 6 GT 14 BYU 28
- 7 GT 17 BYU 34
- 8 GT 14 BYU 35
- 9 GT 7 BYU 31
- 10 GT 13 BYU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Tech wins 18% of them, BYU 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech by 17+ | 1.8% |
| Georgia Tech by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Georgia Tech by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 19.8% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| BYU by 17+ | 40.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Ferrin, 22 yds made · 97% expected
- A. Birr, 35 yds blocked · 84% expected
Penalties: Georgia Tech 7 for 49 yards, BYU 4 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:37 | False Start on Georgia Tech, 0 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:58 | Illegal Touching on Georgia Tech, 0 yards | 0% BYU 0.0 pts |
| Q1 7:44 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards | +2% BYU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 9:20 | Face Mask on BYU, 15 yards | +4% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q2 5:40 | Pass Interference on BYU, 14 yards | 0% GT +2.7 pts |
| Q2 3:10 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GT +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:46 | Holding on Georgia Tech, 10 yards | +1% BYU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 13:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on BYU, 15 yards | +3% GT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +11% BYU +3.9 pts |
| Q4 8:08 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Tech, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% BYU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 6:56 | Illegal Snap on Georgia Tech, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BYU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
BYU’s chance of winning
As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:39 | BYU was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +6% GT | BYU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:20 | Georgia Tech converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% GT | GT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 9:08 | Pass Interference on Georgia Tech, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% BYU | BYU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 11:13 | BYU’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% BYU | BYU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:52 | Georgia Tech was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +7% BYU | GT: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 8:17 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected | +9% GT | BYU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 5:26 | BYU converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +13% BYU | BYU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:13 | Georgia Tech fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% GT | GT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Tech 19% · BYU 81%
- Final margin
- BYU by 4
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Georgia Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 4.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Tech 18% · BYU 82% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Georgia Tech · 
BYU
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