luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Duke's Mayo Bowl · January 2, 2026

Wake Forest vs Mississippi State, Duke's Mayo Bowl 2026: who deserved to win?

Wake Forest beat Mississippi State 43–29, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

An off day for Mississippi State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers

Before kickoff Mississippi State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:17 left): Wake Forest converted 3rd & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to Wake Forest.

Final

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 43
Mississippi State Bulldogs 29

January 2, 2026 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Mississippi State −3

Luck index +20 Wake Forest about even · −20 Mississippi State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Wake Forest wins 8, Mississippi State wins 2.

  1. 1 WAKE 60 MSST 17
  2. 2 WAKE 49 MSST 19
  3. 3 WAKE 45 MSST 20
  4. 4 WAKE 33 MSST 13
  5. 5 WAKE 18 MSST 3
  6. 6 WAKE 34 MSST 23
  7. 7 WAKE 38 MSST 31
  8. 8 WAKE 20 MSST 17
  9. 9 WAKE 30 MSST 37
  10. 10 WAKE 24 MSST 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Mississippi State

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wake Forest it would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.

36 points apart for Mississippi State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Wake Forest offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.04 better by 0.11
Wake Forest defenseEPA per play allowed −0.06 +0.00 better by 0.07
Mississippi State offenseEPA per play gained −0.06 +0.04 worse by 0.10
Mississippi State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.14 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Wake Forest wins 80% of them, Mississippi State 20%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wake Forest by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Wake Forest by 17+44.6%
Wake Forest by 9–1617.6%
Wake Forest by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation2.3%
Mississippi State by 1–89.2%
Mississippi State by 9–165.5%
Mississippi State by 17+4.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to Wake Forest: the final margin was Wake Forest by 14, without the luck Wake Forest by 7.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Ferrie, 33 yds made · 85% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 50 yds made · 56% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 23 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Ferrie, 36 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Wake Forest 9 for 76 yards, Mississippi State 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:33 Illegal Snap on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAKE +1.1 pts
Q1 7:12 Roughing the Passer on Mississippi State, 15 yards +3% WAKE +1.6 pts
Q2 13:19 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +0.7 pts
Q2 11:26 Personal Foul on Wake Forest, 15 yards +4% MSST +1.6 pts
Q2 11:26 Pass Interference on Wake Forest, 15 yards +1% MSST +0.4 pts
Q2 11:26 False Start on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAKE +0.9 pts
Q2 6:15 Ineligible Downfield on Wake Forest, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MSST +1.1 pts
Q2 6:15 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +0.9 pts
Q2 6:15 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MSST +0.5 pts
Q3 9:24 False Start on Wake Forest, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MSST +0.7 pts
Q3 6:17 Pass Interference on Mississippi State, 6 yards +3% WAKE +1.2 pts
Q4 15:00 Delay of Game on Wake Forest, 6 yards · pre-snap +4% WAKE +0.1 pts
Q4 11:26 Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yards +5% MSST +1.6 pts
Q4 4:07 Delay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MSST +0.1 pts
Q4 2:10 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Mississippi State, 9 yards 0% WAKE +0.6 pts

When it happened

Mississippi State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Mississippi State was ahead in it, below while Wake Forest was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:33 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedWake Forest’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedIllegal Snap on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% WAKE MSST: End of half
2 Q2 15:00 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% WAKE MSST: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 6:15 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedWake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedK. Ferrie made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for himIneligible Downfield on Wake Forest, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Wake Forest, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Wake Forest, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% WAKE WAKE: Punt
4 Q3 6:17 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedPass Interference on Mississippi State, 6 yardsJudgment calls +3% WAKE WAKE: Touchdown
5 Q3 0:00 Mississippi State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedMississippi State’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% MSST MSST: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:26 Roughing the Passer on Wake Forest, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% MSST MSST: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:17 Wake Forest converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedWake Forest converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% WAKE WAKE: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:07 Mississippi State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedWake Forest’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedWake Forest missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the timeDelay of Game on Mississippi State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% MSST MSST: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Wake Forest 88% · Mississippi State 12%

Final margin
Wake Forest by 14
Luck in points
6.5 for Wake Forest
Luck-adjusted margin
Wake Forest by 7.5
Replay with same day's form
Wake Forest 80% · Mississippi State 20% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Wake Forest · Mississippi State

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