Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl · December 31, 2025
Arizona State vs Duke, Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Duke beat Arizona State 42–39, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Duke wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 30 points of win probability to Duke.
Before kickoff Duke was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:03 left): Duke fumbled and recovered it, worth 20 points of win probability to Duke.
Final
 Arizona State Sun Devils | 39 |
|---|---|
 Duke Blue Devils | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 Duke lucky · −56 Arizona State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arizona State wins 6, Duke wins 4.
- 1 ASU 55 DUKE 20
- 2 ASU 38 DUKE 14
- 3 ASU 35 DUKE 19
- 4 ASU 27 DUKE 16
- 5 ASU 45 DUKE 39
- 6 ASU 34 DUKE 32
- 7 ASU 31 DUKE 34
- 8 ASU 24 DUKE 33
- 9 ASU 20 DUKE 36
- 10 ASU 17 DUKE 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arizona State wins 56% of them, Duke 44%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arizona State by 17+ | 21.2% |
| Arizona State by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Arizona State by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.8% |
| Duke by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Duke by 9–16 | 11.7% |
| Duke by 17+ | 15.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Arizona State 4 for 46 yards, Duke 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:08 | Illegal Substitution on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ASU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 8:53 | Face Mask on Duke, 15 yards | +3% ASU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:45 | Illegal Formation on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 7:51 | Illegal Formation on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ASU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 3:49 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 15 yards | +4% DUKE +1.6 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 13 yards | 0% ASU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 0:02 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Arizona State, 15 yards | +1% DUKE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 5:24 | Offside on Arizona State, 3 yards · pre-snap | +8% DUKE +3.5 pts |
| Q3 4:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on Duke, 15 yards | +3% ASU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Duke’s chance of winning
As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:08 | Arizona State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedArizona State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedIllegal Substitution on Duke, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% ASU | ASU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:26 | Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedDuke converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +12% DUKE | ASU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 11:28 | Arizona State was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedDuke was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedDuke converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +8% DUKE | ASU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 5:24 | Offside on Arizona State, 3 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% DUKE | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:31 | Duke converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedDuke was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedDuke converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +15% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 4:03 | Duke was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedDuke fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +20% DUKE | DUKE: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:51 | Duke was stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +10% ASU | DUKE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:42 | Arizona State fumbled and Duke recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% DUKE | ASU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arizona State 90% · Duke 10%
- Final margin
- Duke by 3
- Luck in points
- 13.1 for Duke
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Arizona State by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Arizona State 56% · Duke 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Arizona State · 
Duke
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