Navy vs Cincinnati, AutoZone Liberty Bowl 2026

Final

Navy Midshipmen	35
Cincinnati Bearcats	13

January 2, 2026 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Closing line: Navy −7.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +9 Navy about even · −9 Cincinnati

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Navy wins 9, Cincinnati wins 1.

1 NAVY 50 CIN 14
2 NAVY 41 CIN 13
3 NAVY 34 CIN 10
4 NAVY 21 CIN 0
5 NAVY 20 CIN 3
6 NAVY 24 CIN 10
7 NAVY 14 CIN 3
8 NAVY 17 CIN 10
9 NAVY 24 CIN 21
10 NAVY 20 CIN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Navy wins 91% of them, Cincinnati 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Navy by 22.

Actual: Navy by 22 494235282114707142128354249 ← Navy win by Cincinnati win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Navy by 17+	53.5%
Navy by 9–16	21.1%
Navy by 1–8	15.1%
Level after regulation	2.2%
Cincinnati by 1–8	5.7%
Cincinnati by 9–16	1.7%
Cincinnati by 17+	0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +3% CIN

Fumble bounces +2% CIN

All luck +5% CIN

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.3 points to Cincinnati: the final margin was Navy by 22, without the luck Navy by 29.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Navy 2 for 10 yards, Cincinnati 8 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q2 13:52	False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% NAVY +0.6 pts
Q2 6:20	False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap	+2% NAVY +0.8 pts
Q2 1:55	Targeting on Cincinnati, 15 yards	+4% NAVY +1.6 pts
Q2 0:02	False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% NAVY +0.5 pts
Q3 10:15	Offside on Cincinnati, 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap	0% NAVY +7.1 pts
Q3 9:11	Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards	0% NAVY 0.0 pts
Q3 7:56	Offside on Navy, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap	+4% CIN +3.5 pts
Q3 6:54	Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards	+2% NAVY +2.3 pts
Q3 3:06	False Start on Cincinnati, 4 yards · pre-snap	+1% NAVY +1.1 pts
Q3 1:29	Illegal Snap on Navy, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% CIN +0.5 pts

When it happened

Cincinnati’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Cincinnati 50% Navy Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234568

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Cincinnati was ahead in it, below while Navy was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 4:34	Navy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected	+4% NAVY	NAVY: Touchdown
2	Q2 14:03	Cincinnati fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+3% CIN	CIN: Touchdown
3	Q2 12:19	Cincinnati converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected	+8% CIN	CIN: Touchdown
4	Q2 10:40	Cincinnati converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected	+4% CIN	CIN: Touchdown
5	Q2 6:09	Cincinnati converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected	+5% CIN	CIN: Punt
6	Q2 1:55	Targeting on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls	+4% NAVY	NAVY: Touchdown
7	Q3 9:12	Cincinnati fumbled and Navy recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50	+3% NAVY	CIN: Punt
8	Q3 7:56	Offside on Navy, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags	+4% CIN	CIN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Navy 100% · Cincinnati 0%

Final margin: Navy by 22
Luck in points: 7.3 for Cincinnati
Luck-adjusted margin: Navy by 29.3
Replay with same day's form: Navy 91% · Cincinnati 9% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

3rd & 4th downs 50%Fumble bounces 100%Kicks 100%Judgment calls 0%Pre-snap flags 100%Special teams 0%

What counts Referee calls Momentum after a lucky break none

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

Navy converted 3rd & 7Q1 4:34
Cincinnati fumbled and recovered itQ2 14:03
Cincinnati converted 4th & 10Q2 12:19
Cincinnati converted 3rd & 4Q2 10:40
Cincinnati converted 3rd & 8Q2 6:09
Targeting on Cincinnati, 15 yardsQ2 1:55
Cincinnati fumbled and Navy recoveredQ3 9:12
Offside on Navy, 5 yards, wiping out the playQ3 7:56

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 41 of the 48 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Navy · Cincinnati

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