Wasabi Fenway Bowl · December 27, 2025
UConn vs Army, Wasabi Fenway Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat UConn 41–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Army wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Army was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:01 left): False Start on UConn, 5 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Army.
Final
 UConn Huskies | 16 |
|---|---|
 Army Black Knights | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Army about even · −3 UConn
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UConn wins 0, Army wins 10.
- 1 CONN 14 ARMY 21
- 2 CONN 20 ARMY 31
- 3 CONN 7 ARMY 24
- 4 CONN 17 ARMY 35
- 5 CONN 9 ARMY 31
- 6 CONN 14 ARMY 40
- 7 CONN 10 ARMY 41
- 8 CONN 7 ARMY 41
- 9 CONN 14 ARMY 52
- 10 CONN 7 ARMY 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UConn wins 3% of them, Army 97%. The line is what actually happened: Army by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UConn by 17+ | 0.1% |
| UConn by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| UConn by 1–8 | 2.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Army by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Army by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Army by 17+ | 79.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Freeman, 49 yds made · 58% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UConn 5 for 34 yards, Army 0 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Intentional Grounding on UConn, 9 yards | +5% ARMY +2.8 pts |
| Q1 6:01 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% ARMY +3.1 pts |
| Q1 6:01 | False Start on UConn, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% ARMY +3.7 pts |
| Q3 6:22 | Personal Foul on UConn, 0 yards | 0% ARMY 0.0 pts |
| Q4 1:14 | Holding on UConn, 10 yards | 0% ARMY +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Army’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedIntentional Grounding on UConn, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARMY | CONN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:25 | Army was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedUConn was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedUConn converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +10% CONN | ARMY: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 9:17 | Army converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +2% ARMY | ARMY: End of half |
| 4 | Q1 6:01 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedHolding on UConn, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on UConn, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% ARMY | CONN: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 15:00 | Army converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +3% ARMY | ARMY: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 12:55 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedArmy fumbled and UConn recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% CONN | CONN: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:01 | Army converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedArmy converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedArmy fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 14:00 | UConn was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +2% CONN | CONN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UConn 0% · Army 100%
- Final margin
- Army by 25
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 17.7
- Replay with same day's form
- UConn 3% · Army 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
UConn · 
Army
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