luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Isleta New Mexico Bowl · December 27, 2025

North Texas vs San Diego State, Isleta New Mexico Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

North Texas beat San Diego State 49–47, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff North Texas was a 69% favorite.

Final

North Texas Mean Green 49
San Diego State Aztecs 47

December 27, 2025 · University Stadium (NM) · Closing line: North Texas −7.5

Luck index +22 North Texas about even · −22 San Diego State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Texas wins 8, San Diego State wins 2.

  1. 1 UNT 65 SDSU 23
  2. 2 UNT 54 SDSU 24
  3. 3 UNT 59 SDSU 35
  4. 4 UNT 54 SDSU 35
  5. 5 UNT 42 SDSU 27
  6. 6 UNT 45 SDSU 34
  7. 7 UNT 42 SDSU 35
  8. 8 UNT 36 SDSU 34
  9. 9 UNT 34 SDSU 38
  10. 10 UNT 35 SDSU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Texas wins 78% of them, San Diego State 22%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: North Texas by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Texas by 17+43.9%
North Texas by 9–1616.7%
North Texas by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation2.5%
San Diego State by 1–810.8%
San Diego State by 9–165.1%
San Diego State by 17+4.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to North Texas: the final margin was North Texas by 2, without the luck San Diego State by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Plascencia, 57 yds missed · 47% expected
  • M. Arenas, 36 yds missed · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Texas 9 for 90 yards, San Diego State 6 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:26 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards +3% SDSU +2.9 pts
Q2 3:57 Ineligible Downfield on North Texas, 5 yards +1% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.2 pts
Q2 1:48 Ineligible Downfield on San Diego State, 5 yards +1% UNT +0.4 pts
Q2 0:34 Illegal Snap on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.6 pts
Q2 0:17 Personal Foul on San Diego State, 15 yards +3% UNT +1.6 pts
Q3 0:03 Delay of Game on San Diego State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNT +0.7 pts
Q4 13:32 Holding on North Texas, 25 yards 0% SDSU +1.5 pts
Q4 13:07 Personal Foul on North Texas, 15 yards +1% SDSU +1.6 pts
Q4 11:31 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q4 10:38 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards +2% SDSU +1.2 pts
Q4 10:07 False Start on North Texas, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SDSU +0.7 pts
Q4 9:15 Roughing the Passer on San Diego State, 15 yards +5% UNT +2.8 pts
Q4 1:26 Holding on North Texas, 10 yards +1% SDSU +1.3 pts
Q4 0:01 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yards +15% UNT +1.0 pts

When it happened

San Diego State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while San Diego State was ahead in it, below while North Texas was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:27 San Diego State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% UNT SDSU: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:35 North Texas converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% UNT UNT: Touchdown
3 Q2 11:51 San Diego State fumbled and North Texas recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% UNT SDSU: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:00 North Texas converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% UNT UNT: Turnover
5 Q4 10:41 Return touchdown by San Diego StateSpecial teams +5% SDSU SDSU: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:15 Roughing the Passer on San Diego State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% UNT UNT: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:15 North Texas was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% SDSU UNT: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:01 San Diego State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on San Diego State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% UNT SDSU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Texas 37% · San Diego State 63%

Final margin
North Texas by 2
Luck in points
4.8 for North Texas
Luck-adjusted margin
San Diego State by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
North Texas 78% · San Diego State 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · North Texas · San Diego State

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