luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl · December 22, 2025

Washington State vs Utah State, Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington State beat Utah State 34–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington State wins 10 of 10.

An off day for Utah State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff Utah State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): Washington State converted 3rd & 12, worth 10 points of win probability to Washington State.

Final

Washington State Cougars 34
Utah State Aggies 21

December 22, 2025 · Albertsons Stadium · Closing line: Utah State −1.5

Luck index +4 Washington State about even · −4 Utah State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington State wins 10, Utah State wins 0.

  1. 1 WSU 49 USU 0
  2. 2 WSU 55 USU 17
  3. 3 WSU 37 USU 3
  4. 4 WSU 32 USU 3
  5. 5 WSU 36 USU 10
  6. 6 WSU 36 USU 13
  7. 7 WSU 34 USU 14
  8. 8 WSU 29 USU 14
  9. 9 WSU 21 USU 10
  10. 10 WSU 20 USU 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for Utah State

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington State it would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

36 points apart for Utah State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Washington State offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.09 better by 0.06
Washington State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.51 +0.03 better by 0.53
Utah State offenseEPA per play gained −0.51 +0.10 worse by 0.61
Utah State defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.06 worse by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington State wins 96% of them, Utah State 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington State by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington State by 17+73.6%
Washington State by 9–1612.6%
Washington State by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation0.5%
Utah State by 1–82.5%
Utah State by 9–160.7%
Utah State by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to Washington State: the final margin was Washington State by 13, without the luck Washington State by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Stevens, 32 yds missed · 87% expected
  • T. Rinker, 31 yds missed · 86% expected
  • J. Stevens, 23 yds made · 94% expected
  • J. Stevens, 25 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington State 6 for 63 yards, Utah State 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:27 Holding on Utah State, 9 yards +3% WSU +1.5 pts
Q1 7:07 Personal Foul on Washington State, 15 yards +2% USU +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Personal Foul on Utah State, 15 yards +4% WSU +1.6 pts
Q3 14:53 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards +1% USU +0.6 pts
Q3 9:00 Targeting on Utah State, 15 yards +1% WSU +1.6 pts
Q3 2:35 Pass Interference on Washington State, 10 yards 0% USU +4.0 pts
Q4 12:21 Holding on Washington State, 10 yards +1% USU +1.1 pts
Q4 12:16 Holding on Utah State, 10 yards +1% WSU +2.0 pts
Q4 11:36 Personal Foul on Washington State, 3 yards 0% USU +0.9 pts
Q4 7:12 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Washington State, 15 yards +1% USU +1.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Illegal Formation on Utah State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WSU +1.1 pts

When it happened

Utah State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Utah State was ahead in it, below while Washington State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:23 Washington State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% WSU WSU: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:51 J. Stevens missed a 32-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +4% USU WSU: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:08 Washington State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% WSU WSU: Turnover
4 Q1 3:18 T. Rinker missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +7% WSU USU: Turnover
5 Q2 15:00 Washington State converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedPersonal Foul on Utah State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% WSU WSU: Punt
6 Q2 10:44 Utah State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% USU USU: Punt
7 Q2 7:13 Washington State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% WSU WSU: Touchdown
8 Q2 5:31 Washington State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% WSU WSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington State 84% · Utah State 16%

Final margin
Washington State by 13
Luck in points
7.7 for Washington State
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington State by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington State 96% · Utah State 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Washington State · Utah State

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